Fantasy Baseball Playoff Cheat Sheet: Week 4, September 21 to September 27
By JD, Founder.
One page for championship week of the fantasy baseball playoffs and the last week of the regular season: the matchups that matter, every two-start pitcher priced start by start, the streamers worth a spot each day, the waiver bats on the best schedules, the Yankees' seven home games, and the injury and shutdown moves that change the board.
TL;DR For most leagues the week of September 21 is the championship, and it is the last week of the regular season. This cheat sheet covers September 21 through 27: the matchup board, every two-start pitcher priced start by start, streamers for each day, the waiver bats on the best schedules, catcher steal matchups, and the injury moves that change the week. Two things are different. Monday has three games, so 28 teams play six, Tuesday through Sunday, while the Yankees and Rays play seven with a split doubleheader Tuesday in the Bronx. And Sunday is game 162: clinched and eliminated teams rest regulars and shut down young arms, so check lineups and probables every morning from Friday on. Aaron Judge is on the injured list with a calf strain and no timeline. Weather, Sunday the 20th: thunderstorms in Chicago for Tigers at White Sox and in Baltimore for Brewers at Orioles tonight, showers in Cleveland and Pittsburgh. A postponement becomes a Monday makeup, a fourth Monday game, and an extra start and extra at-bats for the team that gets it.
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The Matchup Board, Condensed
Hitters are graded by the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs they face this week; pitchers by the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups they face. League average is 4.49 runs per game. The Yankees and Rays play seven games this week; everyone else plays six, and 24 of the 30 teams are off Monday.
| Best for Hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | Run Factor | | Best for Pitchers | G | Arms Face | vs League |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Astros | 6 | 5.51 | +1.02 | 1.030 | | Mariners | 6 | 3.70 | -0.79 |
| Diamondbacks | 6 | 5.36 | +0.87 | 1.053 | | Angels | 6 | 3.99 | -0.50 |
| White Sox | 6 | 5.28 | +0.79 | 0.991 | | Twins | 6 | 4.20 | -0.29 |
| Athletics | 6 | 5.19 | +0.70 | 1.103 | | Dodgers | 6 | 4.21 | -0.28 |
| Blue Jays | 6 | 4.99 | +0.50 | 1.017 | | Braves | 6 | 4.22 | -0.27 |
| Tigers | 6 | 4.89 | +0.40 | 1.011 | | Cubs | 6 | 4.25 | -0.24 |
| Angels | 6 | 4.72 | +0.23 | 0.957 | | Rangers | 6 | 4.26 | -0.23 |
| Rockies | 6 | 4.69 | +0.20 | 1.059 | | Reds | 6 | 4.31 | -0.18 |
The fades are below:
| Worst for Hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | | Worst for Pitchers | G | Arms Face | vs League |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cubs | 6 | 3.96 | -0.53 | | Phillies | 6 | 5.21 | +0.72 |
| Padres | 6 | 3.99 | -0.50 | | Tigers | 6 | 4.98 | +0.49 |
| Orioles | 6 | 4.00 | -0.49 | | Cardinals | 6 | 4.98 | +0.49 |
| Marlins | 6 | 4.00 | -0.49 | | Rockies | 6 | 4.80 | +0.31 |
| Rays | 7 | 4.05 | -0.44 | | Diamondbacks | 6 | 4.78 | +0.29 |
| Mariners | 6 | 4.09 | -0.40 | | Marlins | 6 | 4.78 | +0.29 |
Four notes on the board. The Astros: six road games against the Mariners and Athletics grade 5.51 runs faced, the best hitting week on the board, and three of the six are in Sacramento, the best run environment any team plays in this week. The Mariners: six home games in the league's lowest-scoring park against the Astros and Angels grade 3.70 runs faced, the softest week for any staff in the playoffs; Logan Gilbert's two starts and Bryan Woo's Thursday all price above 110, and Mariners hitters are a bottom-six matchup in their own park. The Yankees: the deep dive flagged their seven home games in August, and the games are unchanged, four against the Rays including Tuesday's doubleheader and three against the Orioles. Two things have changed. The pitching they face now grades as an average matchup at 4.32, and Judge is on the injured list with a calf strain and no timeline. Seven games is still one more than any other team, all at Yankee Stadium, so start the rest of the lineup for the volume, and Chisholm's return Tuesday puts a bat back in it. The Rays get the same seventh game, four in the Bronx and three in Philadelphia, and their bats grade a bottom-five week on the pitching they face; play them anyway, because the extra game is worth more than the matchup, and the wire section lists every Yankee and Ray under 50 percent rostered. The Phillies: six home games against the Brewers and Rays grade 5.21 runs faced for their pitchers, the worst number on the board, in a park that favors left-handed power. Zack Wheeler is startable on his own ratios, Cristopher Sánchez's Saturday against the Rays prices a 79, and no other Phillies starter is a start; Jesús Luzardo is on the IL.
The other schedule note is Coors Field. The only series there this week is Diamondbacks at Rockies, Tuesday through Thursday. That is why Arizona bats grade the second-best hitting week and why no Diamondbacks starter, Michael Soroka, Merrill Kelly, or Eduardo Rodriguez, is a start there. The Rockies then play three in Chicago, which is the main reason White Sox bats grade third, and Rockies bats sneak into the top eight on the strength of the three home games.
Two-Start Pitchers
Every pitcher lined up for two starts this week, priced start by start by the StreamMachine and grouped into the same tiers as the live Two-Start Pitchers board, which re-prices as probables are announced. The FanGraphs probables grid covers the whole week, Monday through Sunday. Most starts through Thursday are announced now; the weekend is still the grid's projection, and "(p)" marks the projections. Scores are innings-priced: a pitcher expected to go four innings shows 80 percent of his rate. The live board re-prices each start as it is announced.
| Wk | Pitcher | Team | Rost% | Score | Matchup | Score | Matchup | ERA | K | IP | xW | xQS |
| :---: | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :--- | :---: | :--- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| == Tier S: Elite Spots == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 108 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 98% | 107 | Tue vs HOU | 109 | Sun vs LAA (p) | 3.01 | 13 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| == Tier A: Start With Confidence == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 80 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | 81% | 80 | Tue vs TB | 81 | Sun vs BAL (p) | 3.58 | 11 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 78 | Kevin Gausman | CHC | 90% | 81 | Wed vs MIA (p) | 76 | Sun @ BOS (p) | 3.85 | 11 | 11.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| == Tier B: Solid Options == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 71 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 98% | 67 | Tue vs MIL | 75 | Sun vs TB (p) | 3.81 | 14 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 70 | Jared Jones | PIT | 53% | 74 | Tue vs STL | 67 | Sun @ DET (p) | 3.79 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 68 | JR Ritchie | ATL | 16% | 80 | Tue vs CIN | 57 | Sun @ MIA (p) | 3.83 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 68 | Parker Messick | CLE | 95% | 67 | Tue @ BOS | 68 | Sun @ KC (p) | 3.73 | 12 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 66 | Michael Soroka | AZ | 38% | 57 | Tue @ COL | 74 | Sun @ SD (p) | 3.53 | 10 | 10.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 63 | Cristian Javier | HOU | 25% | 68 | Tue @ SEA | 58 | Sun @ ATH (p) | 4.03 | 10 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 62 | Shane Baz | BAL | 54% | 71 | Mon vs TOR | 54 | Sun @ NYY (p) | 3.60 | 11 | 11.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 59 | Michael King | SD | 93% | 50 | Tue @ LAD | 68 | Sun vs AZ (p) | 3.62 | 10 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 58 | Blade Tidwell | SF | 9% | 61 | Mon vs MIN | 54 | Sat vs LAD (p) | 4.14 | 10 | 10.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| == Tier C: Thin Ice == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 54 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | 24% | 44 | Tue @ ATH | 63 | Sun @ SEA (p) | 3.92 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 50 | Sean Manaea | NYM | 25% | 57 | Tue @ TEX | 42 | Sun @ WSH (p) | 4.09 | 11 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 46 | Max Scherzer | TOR | 15% | 35 | Tue @ BAL | 57 | Sun vs CIN (p) | 4.09 | 8 | 9.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 46 | Nick Martinez | TB | 77% | 46 | Tue @ NYY | 46 | Sun @ PHI (p) | 3.77 | 8 | 12.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| == Tier D: Stay Away == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 44 | Jake Irvin | WSH | 10% | 40 | Mon @ DET (p) | 48 | Sat vs NYM (p) | 4.48 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 42 | Daniel Lynch IV | KC | 10% | 41 | Tue vs CWS | 43 | Sun vs CLE (p) | 3.44 | 6 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 42 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | 4% | 42 | Tue @ ATL | 41 | Sun @ TOR | 4.54 | 10 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 37 | Jack Perkins | ATH | 6% | 39 | Tue vs LAA (p) | 35 | Sat vs HOU (p) | 4.44 | 9 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 36 | Anthony Kay | CWS | 20% | 33 | Tue @ KC | 38 | Sun vs COL (p) | 4.26 | 7 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 29 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 70% | 38 | Tue vs NYM (p) | 20 | Sun @ MIN (p) | 4.08 | 10 | 9.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 27 | Andre Pallante | STL | 37% | 23 | Tue @ PIT | 32 | Sun @ MIL (p) | 4.19 | 9 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 24 | Janson Junk | MIA | 4% | 21 | Tue @ CHC | 28 | Sun vs ATL (p) | 4.43 | 7 | 9.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Kyle Freeland | COL | 6% | -3 | Tue vs AZ | 9 | Sun @ CWS (p) | 5.24 | 8 | 10.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Scores are Stream Scores (50 = league-average start), priced by expected innings. xW = expected wins, xQS = expected quality starts for the week; both go to zero for any start projected at four innings or less. "(p)" marks a projected start from the FanGraphs grid; Sunday starts on the last day of the season are the least reliable projections on this sheet. Five rows carry a note. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the grid Tuesday and Sunday and is not on this table: the Dodgers have said none of their starters pitches twice this week, and the same rule keeps Blake Snell to his one grid start, Friday in San Francisco (120). Michael King is Tuesday at Dodger Stadium (50), announced, and the board lines him up again Sunday against the Diamondbacks (68) on four days' rest; the word out of San Diego is that the second start happens only if the Padres still need game 162, so Ray, now Wednesday (41), is the Sunday fallback. Arizona has announced Soroka for Tuesday at Coors, with Kelly Wednesday and Rodriguez Thursday, and the grid brings him back Sunday at Petco; Arizona has seven starters active with Zac Gallen and Ryne Nelson back, so confirm the Sunday start before you count it. Scherzer's Tuesday in Baltimore is announced, and his Sunday against the Reds is rotation order; Trey Yesavage starts Monday in Baltimore, announced, on 45 to 50 pitches, about three innings, and is unpriced. Irvin's Monday and Saturday are rotation order, and the grid also lists him Sunday, so Washington's weekend is a guess; Connelly Early's debut is Saturday against the Mets by Paul Toboni's word. One start only: Fried (Tuesday, 98), Henderson (Wednesday, 79), Sale (Wednesday, 109), Ray (Wednesday), Griffin (Wednesday), Abbott (Wednesday), and Bennett (Friday); Nick Martinez pitches the second game of Tuesday's doubleheader and again Sunday. Eovaldi is off the grid, and the Athletics' rotation past Wednesday is a swing group (Brady Basso, Mason Barnett, Jack Perkins) that the grid and the board disagree on, so Perkins's row is a placeholder.
Three-game Monday changes the shape of the week. Only the Blue Jays and Orioles, Nationals and Tigers, and Twins and Giants play Monday. A two-start week means Monday and Sunday for those six teams and Tuesday and Sunday for everyone else, and the Tuesday slate is sixteen games, with the Rays and Yankees playing twice. Baz and Tidwell are the Monday-and-weekend pitchers on the board, both announced for Monday; Toronto's Monday is Yesavage's three-inning return, Scherzer pitches Tuesday and Sunday, and Washington's Monday is Irvin by rotation order. River Ryan has Detroit's Monday, announced, Drew Anderson the Tuesday, and Troy Melton the Sunday. The two-start list is short on the wire. Ritchie, Soroka, Tidwell, Javier, Kikuchi, and Manaea are the pitchers under 50 percent rostered with a Tier C week or better, and three of the six have an innings or health caveat. Jared Jones and Shane Baz are over 50 percent; they are still the best two-start adds in the leagues where they remain available.
The aces face the weakest lineups. Logan Gilbert is the top of the table: Astros and Angels at home in the best pitching week on the board, and his 6.11 September ERA is the only blemish. Blake Snell is on the grid once, Friday in San Francisco, and it prices a 120, the best single start of the week, with a 0.71 September ERA; the Dodgers are not starting anyone twice, which also keeps Yoshinobu Yamamoto off this table despite a grid that shows him Tuesday and Sunday. Carlos Rodon has the Yankees' two starts, the second game of Tuesday's doubleheader and Sunday, both against lineups that grade average, and Max Fried has the first game Tuesday (98) with a 1.69 September ERA. Chris Sale is Wednesday against the Reds, a 109; Atlanta skipped him this weekend to line him up for the Wild Card round, and the Braves gave the Tuesday and Sunday turns to JR Ritchie, which is why Ritchie is the best two-start pitcher on the wire. The other two aces who are not on this table are worth a line each. Jacob deGrom starts Sunday the 20th against the Blue Jays and then Saturday the 26th in Minneapolis (86), one start this week. Cade Cavalli is Wednesday in Detroit (89) and nothing else; he threw five shutout innings on 73 pitches Friday in St. Louis, reached 200 strikeouts, and signed a four-year extension the same day, so the rest Washington built into his last two turns looks like caution rather than a shutdown.
The fades. The Rockies' three home games are the only Coors games this week. Kyle Freeland (Tuesday, a negative score) and Mason Adams (Wednesday, 55) are announced for Colorado, with Thursday unnamed, and Soroka (Tuesday, 57), Merrill Kelly (Wednesday, 34), and Eduardo Rodriguez (Thursday, 39, on 81 percent of rosters, seven runs in 5.1 innings Friday) are announced for Arizona; bench all of them, Soroka included, and start him Sunday at Petco once Arizona confirms it. Bench every Phillies starter except Wheeler and Sánchez's Saturday. Robbie Ray is one start now, Wednesday at Dodger Stadium (41), on 80 percent of rosters; he has allowed 13 runs in 13.1 September innings. MacKenzie Gore is a two-start pitcher on 70 percent of rosters with a 29 week: 13 walks and 13 runs in 16.1 September innings, and the Sunday start in Minneapolis is a 20. Tigers and Cardinals pitchers face the second- and third-toughest weeks, which is why Troy Melton's Sunday against the Pirates is a 63 rather than an 80 and why every Cardinals starter is under 46.
Best Available Two-Start Arms
Under 50 percent rostered, in order of preference, with Jones and Baz at the bottom for the leagues where they are still free. The week column shows each start with its Stream Score (50 = a league-average start).
| Pitcher | Team | Rost% | The week | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| JR Ritchie | ATL | 16% | Tue vs CIN (80), Sun @ MIA (57) | The best week on the wire, from the Braves' schedule more than his own line, his Tuesday is the best Tuesday start under 60 percent rostered, ahead of Bassitt's 71 at home against the Blue Jays. Tuesday is at home against Reds bats on a bottom-six road week, in a park that suppresses runs; Sunday is game 162 in Miami. His first start back, on the 16th, was 4.2 innings and six runs, and he has walked 38 in 62.2 innings on the season with a 5.03 ERA. Start Tuesday, decide on Sunday when the Braves confirm it. |
| Michael Soroka | AZ | 38% | Tue @ COL (57), Sun @ SD (74) | The best rate on the wire this week, on the wrong side of Coors on Tuesday, which Arizona has announced. Ten strikeouts and two walks in nine innings since coming off the IL, a 3.45 ERA on the season. Sunday at Petco against Padres bats on a bottom-three week is the start to plan around, once Arizona confirms it: the club has seven starters active. A 57 at Coors is playable in a points league and a risk in a ratios league. |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | 9% | Mon vs MIN (61), Sat vs LAD (54) | Monday against the Twins is announced, at Oracle Park against a lineup that grades below average, and Saturday against the Dodgers is rotation order. A 4.56 ERA in 53.1 innings on the season with 42 strikeouts, and eight runs in 15.2 September innings. Nine percent rostered because the Giants are out; the Monday start is the reason to add him in a two-start league. |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | 25% | Tue @ SEA (68), Sun @ ATH (58) | Both starts are priced at 4.7 innings, from rates of 73 and 62. He went 5.1 innings on the 16th, his longest start since returning from Tommy John surgery, and has a 2.20 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 16.1 September innings, though seven walks. Seattle's lineup at home grades bottom six; Sacramento's park is the risk on Sunday. Low win odds and no quality starts, but the ratios and strikeouts are good. |
| Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | 24% | Tue @ ATH (44), Sun @ SEA (63) | Five runs in 14.1 September innings with 15 strikeouts, but 12 walks. Sunday in Seattle is the better start; Tuesday in Sacramento against Athletics bats on the fourth-best hitting week is the ratio risk. If you can start him once, start him Sunday. |
| Sean Manaea | NYM | 25% | Tue @ TEX (57), Sun @ WSH (42) | Tuesday in Arlington is announced, against Rangers bats that grade middle of the pack; then Washington on game 162 by the grid. Eleven runs in 16 September innings, so ratios are the risk; the strikeouts are steady, and the Mets are back to five starters with Robert Stock on the IL. The Mets are eliminated, so the Sunday start is the one most likely to become a bullpen day. |
| Jake Irvin | WSH | 10% | Mon @ DET (40), Sat vs NYM (48) | Monday in Detroit and Saturday at home against the Mets by rotation order, neither announced, and the grid also has him Sunday, so Washington's weekend is a guess. Eight runs in 14.2 September innings, a 5.51 ERA on the season. Deep leagues, and only after Washington names the days. |
| Max Scherzer | TOR | 15% | Tue @ BAL (35), Sun vs CIN (57) | Tuesday is announced and prices a 37 against Orioles bats at Camden Yards: ten runs in 15.2 September innings, a 6.07 ERA on the season. Sunday against the Reds is the start Toronto has floated for Yesavage's bulk return, and if Yesavage pitches Monday the Sunday turn is his on regular rest. Do not start Scherzer either day. |
| Daniel Lynch IV | KC | 10% | Tue vs CWS (41), Sun vs CLE (43) | Two home starts, priced at the 4.4 innings Kansas City has let him go. Seven runs in 15 September innings. Deep leagues, ratios only. |
| Brandon Williamson | CIN | 4% | Tue @ ATL (42), Sun @ TOR (41) | Both starts are announced: Tuesday in Atlanta and Sunday in Toronto, the turns Chase Burns would have had before his groin put him on the IL. He was the bulk arm behind Burns, so five innings is the ceiling, and Braves bats at home are the first matchup. Ratios only, deep leagues only. |
| Anthony Kay | CWS | 20% | Tue @ KC (33), Sun vs COL (38) | Royals bats at home grade middle of the pack; Rockies bats on the road are the better matchup. Eight runs in 12.1 September innings. Ratios only, deep leagues only. |
| Andre Pallante | STL | 37% | Tue @ PIT (23), Sun @ MIL (32) | Tuesday is announced. Eight runs in 15 September innings, Cardinals pitchers face the third-toughest week, and both starts are on the road. Not this week. |
| Jared Jones | PIT | 53% | Tue vs STL (74), Sun @ DET (67) | Over the cutoff. Tuesday at PNC against Cardinals bats that grade below average on the road, Sunday at Comerica, both on the grid. Twenty-six strikeouts and three earned runs in 18 September innings, 109 strikeouts in 90.2 innings on the season. Pittsburgh has him on a 75-to-80-pitch limit, which is the five innings the board prices, and budgeted him for under 180 innings, so both starts are safe on innings. If he is on your wire, he is the add. |
| Shane Baz | BAL | 54% | Mon vs TOR (71), Sun @ NYY (54) | Monday at Camden Yards against Blue Jays bats prices well; Sunday in the Bronx on game 162 is a 42. Nine runs in 16 September innings. A Monday-only start is fine. |
Innings Limits and Short Leashes
The last week of the season is when innings limits become shutdowns. These are the pitchers on this sheet with a confirmed limit, a stated plan to shorten them, or a pattern that suggests the second start will not happen, based on the teams' own comments. In the final week a limit can become a shutdown overnight, so read the pregame notes before you set anything.
| Pitcher | What the team has said | What it means this week |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Blake Snell, LAD | Left the 16th after one inning with groin tightness. Threw from 90 feet Friday, no imaging. Roberts said he is "more confident" Snell makes a normal start next week, that the day is not set, and that "there is a thought" of skipping him entirely to keep him for the playoffs. | The grid now has him once, Friday in San Francisco (120), the best single start of the week if he makes it; the Dodgers are not starting anyone twice, and Sasaki's return and Kris Bubic's activation give them two ways to cover the turn if they skip him. |
| Jake Bennett, BOS | 144 innings across two levels, more than his previous three seasons combined. Boston has built extra rest into his schedule since mid-August, and announced Tolle, Gray, and Suarez for Tuesday through Thursday. | One start, Friday at Fenway against the Cubs (45), on the worst hitting week on the board for his opponent and still a below-average score, because it is 12 runs in 16 September innings against a Cubs lineup that has been the quietest in baseball. A deep-league start only. |
| Cristian Javier, HOU | Tommy John cohort; 5.1 innings on the 16th was his longest start since returning. | Both starts are priced at 4.7 innings, a 68 and a 58 from rates of 73 and 62. Zero expected quality starts; win odds under 30 percent each. |
| Jared Jones, PIT | A 75-to-80-pitch limit per start, and a season budget under 180 innings that he will not reach. | Five innings a start, which is what the board prices: 74 Tuesday, 66 Sunday. Not a shutdown risk, but do not expect a sixth inning or a quality start. |
| Kyle Leahy, STL | Innings "significantly curtailed" down the stretch. Friday against Washington he went three innings and allowed six earned runs before Cooper Hjerpe took four. | Thursday in Pittsburgh is on the grid at a rate of 49, priced at four innings: a 39. Hjerpe is in line for the win. Not a start. |
| Christian Scott, NYM | Career-high innings; the Mets are giving him extra rest rather than four-day turns. | On the grid for Friday in Washington at 44, priced at four and a half innings. The Mets are eliminated and are the team most likely to skip a young pitcher on the final weekend. |
| Zac Thornton and Jonah Tong, NYM | Thornton was described as having two outings left; the first was Friday, six innings and two runs against the Phillies. Tong has been told he stays in the rotation for the rest of the year. | Thornton's last one is Thursday in Arlington (49). Tong's Saturday in Washington is a 48, one start; the Nationals' lineup at home is the reason the score is low, not the innings. |
| Griffin Jax, TB | Held under 70 pitches in all three September starts; five shutout innings on 67 pitches on the 15th. Starts Sunday the 20th against Boston, then the grid has him Saturday. | Saturday in Philadelphia, priced at four and a half innings: a 41 from a rate of 45. Citizens Bank Park against Phillies bats is the reason the rate is low. Do not start him. |
| Hayden Wesneski, HOU | Fourteen months out for Tommy John; Espada is holding him at 80 to 85 pitches "before we can extend the leash." He starts Saturday the 19th against the Braves. | Friday in Sacramento is on the grid at 72, priced at 5.4 innings. A 1.00 WHIP in 16 September innings; the park is the reason the score is not higher. |
| Corbin Burnes, AZ | Building up after UCL surgery: 57 pitches on September 8, then 75 pitches and 4.2 innings on the 14th. He starts Sunday the 20th against the Yankees on a pitch limit. | Saturday at Petco is on the grid, priced at four and a half innings: a 64 from a rate of 71. A good matchup against Padres bats on a bottom-three week; the innings, and the five runs he allowed in the 4.2, are the caveats. |
| Cade Cavalli, WSH | Washington pushed his last start back two days for rest and said next week's could be delayed too. Friday in St. Louis: five shutout innings, six strikeouts, 73 pitches, pulled with a big lead; he reached 200 strikeouts and signed a four-year extension the same day. | On the grid for Wednesday in Detroit at 85, the second-best single start on the board that day. Check Monday that he is still listed; if the Nationals push him again, the start slides to Friday or later. |
| Kade Anderson, SEA | Rookie called up late; Seattle plans a regular turn but is monitoring his innings, and nothing new has been said. | Saturday against the Angels at T-Mobile Park is on the grid, a 68 priced at five innings, the second-best Saturday start on the wire. Ten runs in 15.1 September innings is the recent form. Seattle is still alive in the West and for a wild card, which makes the start more likely, not less; check Friday. |
| Daniel Lynch IV, KC | Back in the rotation in September, on a short leash: 4.4 expected innings. | Two home starts against the White Sox and Guardians price 41 and 44 with the leash included. Do not start him. |
| Jack Flaherty, DET; Trey Yesavage, TOR; Connelly Early, WSH | All three are coming off rehab assignments into the final week. Flaherty makes a rehab start Saturday the 19th in Toledo, "the final box" before activation, and Detroit's plan is short starts or a bulk role, not a rotation spot. Yesavage starts Monday the 21st in Baltimore on 45 to 50 pitches, about three innings, in a bulk role because he is not stretched out. Paul Toboni says Early pitches Saturday the 26th against the Mets, workload unclear. | Yesavage is announced for Monday and unpriced. Detroit has announced Jackson Jobe for Friday, so Flaherty's return, if it comes, is a relief or bulk role somewhere in the weekend. Early's Saturday is Toboni's word; the board keeps Irvin in Washington's weekend slots until the Nationals announce. None of the three is a start. |
How a limit changes the numbers. Every score on this sheet and on the live StreamMachine and Two-Start boards is the rate times the expected innings over five, since five innings is the minimum for a win: a four-inning start is worth 80 percent of its rate, a three-inning start 60 percent, and a start of five innings or more keeps its full rate. A quality start needs six innings, so anyone held to four or fewer shows zero expected quality starts. Pro members can see both numbers on the board. In a ratios-only league, use the rate; everywhere else, use the score. The last week adds a second discount the model cannot see: a team with nothing to play for will pull a starter after 60 pitches to look at a reliever. Eleven teams are eliminated already (the Athletics, Royals, Angels, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Cardinals, Giants, and Nationals), and five have clinched (the Rays, Yankees, Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers). Read the pregame notes.
| Pitcher | Start | Rate | Expected innings | Score | Win odds | Strikeouts |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kyle Leahy | Thu @ PIT, before Hjerpe | 47 | 4 | 37 | 16% | 3.9 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Tue vs CWS | 47 | 4.4 | 41 | 27% | 3.1 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Sun vs CLE | 49 | 4.4 | 43 | 26% | 3.1 |
| Griffin Jax | Sat @ PHI | 47 | 4.5 | 42 | 21% | 4.6 |
| Corbin Burnes | Sat @ SD (building up after surgery) | 71 | 4.5 | 64 | 25% | 4.7 |
| Christian Scott | Fri @ WSH, if the start happens | 53 | 4.5 | 48 | 20% | 5.3 |
| Cristian Javier | Tue @ SEA | 72 | 4.7 | 68 | 21% | 5.2 |
| Cristian Javier | Sun @ ATH | 62 | 4.7 | 58 | 25% | 4.5 |
| Jared Jones | Tue vs STL (75 to 80 pitches) | 74 | 5 | 74 | 33% | 4.8 |
| Jared Jones | Sun @ DET | 67 | 5 | 67 | 26% | 4.9 |
| Kade Anderson | Sat vs LAA | 67 | 5 | 67 | 30% | 5.6 |
| Blake Snell | Fri @ SF, one start | 120 | 5 | 120 | 37% | 6.2 |
| Cade Cavalli | Wed @ DET | 89 | 5.4 | 89 | 29% | 6.3 |
| Jonah Tong | Sat @ WSH | 45 | 5.4 | 45 | 29% | 5.1 |
| Hayden Wesneski | Fri @ ATH (80 to 85 pitches) | 70 | 5.5 | 70 | 34% | 5.2 |
| Jake Bennett | Fri vs CHC, one start | 45 | 5.5 | 45 | 32% | 4.1 |
| Zac Thornton | Thu @ TEX, his last | 46 | 5.6 | 46 | 29% | 4.3 |
Score = rate times expected innings divided by five, capped at one, which is the live board's formula. Expected innings blend each pitcher's last four starts with his season average and apply the caps the teams have announced. Quality starts for Leahy, Lynch, Jax, Burnes, Scott, and Javier: zero, and the board says so. Burnes is on the list because Arizona is still building him up after surgery, not because of a cap. Snell's row is the grid's Friday in San Francisco, his one start. Bennett has one start, Friday against the Cubs, after Boston announced Tolle, Gray, and Suarez for Tuesday through Thursday.
Not on a limit, for the record: Troy Melton says none has been relayed to him, and Jonah Tong has a rotation spot through the end of the season. Cal Quantrill pitched Saturday the 19th after back tightness pushed him back a day; the grid has Trevor Williams in Texas's Friday slot, so whether Quantrill's turn comes Friday in Minneapolis or is skipped is a Texas announcement away.
Streamers by Day
Single starts under 60 percent rostered, ranked by Stream Score, from the FanGraphs grid for every day of the week. Scores are for the matchup shown and are innings-priced; 50 is a league-average start. Monday has three games and River Ryan's announced start in Detroit, Tuesday's best singles on the wire are Bassitt at home against the Blue Jays and Ritchie from the two-start table, Wednesday through Friday are the deepest days, and the weekend is the last of the season, so the Saturday and Sunday names are the most likely to change.
| Day | Streamer | Team | Opponent | Rost% | Score | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mon Sep 21 | River Ryan | DET | vs WSH | 18% | 62 | Announced. Detroit's Monday against Nationals bats that grade below average on the road, and the Tigers are two games from elimination, so the start is a real one. The best Monday start on the wire. |
| Mon Sep 21 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @ SF | 35% | 43 | Announced. Oracle Park against Giants bats on a below-average week; five walks and a 1.86 WHIP in 9.2 September innings. Deep leagues. |
| Tue Sep 22 | Chris Bassitt | BAL | vs TOR | 21% | 71 | Announced. Blue Jays bats grade the fifth-best hitting week; the 71 reflects Camden Yards in late September and a 3.12 September ERA with 17 strikeouts in 17.1 innings. The best Tuesday single on the wire in a sixteen-game slate; Ritchie's Tuesday (80) is in the two-start table. |
| Tue Sep 22 | Dustin May | MIL | @ PHI | 40% | 62 | Announced. Citizens Bank Park and a 4.6-inning leash hold the score to 62 from a rate of 67; five runs in 12 September innings, and 2.1 innings and three runs in Baltimore on Friday. Milwaukee has clinched, so the leash is the risk. |
| Tue Sep 22 | Anthony Molina | SF | vs MIN | 3% | 58 | Announced. Oracle Park and a Twins lineup that grades below average. Seven runs in 13.2 September innings with 16 strikeouts. Deep leagues only. |
| Tue Sep 22 | Drew Anderson | DET | vs WSH | 13% | 42 | Announced. Home against Nationals bats that grade below average on the road; four runs and 13 strikeouts in 16 September innings, but eight walks and a 4.8-inning leash. Deep leagues. |
| Wed Sep 23 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | vs SD | 52% | 78 | The Dodgers' open slot. The grid has Roki Sasaki here, and Roberts said Friday that Sasaki's next outing is a start without naming the day, so the board keeps Wrobleski until the activation. Padres bats at Dodger Stadium are a bottom-three week, which is why the slot prices 78 whoever pitches it; six runs in ten September innings for Wrobleski. If Sasaki is activated, he is the better start if the Dodgers let him go five. |
| Wed Sep 23 | Cody Bradford | TEX | vs NYM | 3% | 54 | On the grid, in the slot Eovaldi vacated. Arlington against Mets bats that grade below average on the road; eight runs in 12.1 September innings across two starts, and a 4.9-inning leash. Deep leagues. |
| Wed Sep 23 | Ethan Pecko | HOU | @ SEA | 7% | 52 | On the grid. T-Mobile Park and a Mariners lineup that grades bottom six; three runs in 15.2 September innings across a start and relief, and a 4.5-inning leash. Deep leagues only. |
| Wed Sep 23 | Seth Lugo | KC | vs CWS | 38% | 46 | Announced. White Sox bats are the third-best hitting week, which is why a home start prices this low; nine runs in 15 September innings. |
| Wed Sep 23 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | @ ATL | 53% | 43 | Announced, one start. Atlanta against Braves bats at home; 4.6 innings a start and nine runs in 10.2 September innings. Not a start. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Clay Holmes | CHC | vs MIA | 58% | 65 | On the grid. Marlins bats are a bottom-two hitting week, which is the whole score: he walked five and allowed six runs in Cincinnati on Friday and has a 9.39 ERA this month. The matchup flatters him. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | vs NYM | 22% | 64 | On the grid. Arlington against Mets bats that grade below average on the road; the 4.7-inning leash holds the score to 64 from a rate of 68. Friday against Toronto: 4.1 innings, one run, 76 pitches. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Peter Lambert | HOU | @ ATH | 34% | 62 | On the grid. A 3.93 ERA with 16 strikeouts and one walk in 18.1 September innings; 5.1 innings and two runs against the Braves on Friday. Sacramento's run environment is why the score is 62. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Randy Dobnak | KC | vs CWS | 10% | 60 | Announced. A 1.22 WHIP in 21.1 September innings, but 14 earned runs for a 5.91 ERA, including four in 3.2 innings Friday in Pittsburgh, and the board rates Kauffman Stadium well. White Sox bats are the negative, and the 60 already accounts for them. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | @ SEA | 24% | 58 | On the grid. The score is mostly the park: Seattle's lineup at home grades bottom six, and T-Mobile is the best pitcher's park in the league this week. Friday against the Twins was his best start of the month, 6.2 innings and three runs with no walks; 14 runs in 22 September innings is the risk. |
| Thu Sep 24 | Zac Thornton | NYM | @ TEX | 31% | 46 | Announced. Arlington against Rangers bats that grade middle of the pack; six innings and two runs against the Phillies on Friday. Described as having two outings left, and this is the second. |
| Thu Sep 24 | José Urquidy | PHI | vs MIL | 3% | 42 | On the grid, activated Friday. Citizens Bank Park against Brewers bats on a 4.5-inning leash. Not a start. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Andrew Alvarez | WSH | vs NYM | 31% | 91 | On the grid. A 2.38 September ERA with 13 strikeouts in 11.1 innings, a home start, and Mets bats that grade below average on the road. He starts Saturday the 19th in St. Louis, so Friday is normal rest. The top Friday score on the wire and the best streamer on this sheet. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU | @ ATH | 36% | 70 | On the grid. A 1.00 WHIP in 16 September innings; the Athletics' park and the fourth-best hitting week are why the score is 70 rather than 85. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Bryce Miller | SEA | vs LAA | 48% | 70 | Rotation order. The grid has Emerson Hancock in this slot, but Hancock has not been activated and Seattle has said his return would be in the bullpen, so the board keeps Miller. Home park against an Angels lineup that grades below average; nine walks in 13.1 September innings is the risk. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Connor Prielipp | MIN | vs TEX | 19% | 69 | On the grid. Home against Rangers bats that grade middle of the pack; seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts in Anaheim on Friday, and 19 strikeouts against three walks in 21.1 September innings. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Robert Gasser | MIL | vs STL | 25% | 67 | On the grid. Four runs in 14 September innings, a home start, and Cardinals bats that grade below average. Milwaukee names him in its playoff rotation, so the start is safe. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Jackson Jobe | DET | vs PIT | 39% | 62 | Announced. Pirates bats grade middle of the pack on the road; 15 strikeouts and three runs in 11.1 September innings, and a five-inning leash limits the score. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Jake Bennett | BOS | vs CHC | 46% | 45 | On the grid, one start. Fenway against Cubs bats on the worst hitting week on the board is the reason the score is 45 and not 70; 12 runs in 16 September innings. See the innings section. |
| Fri Sep 25 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | @ KC | 46% | 43 | On the grid. Kauffman Stadium against Royals bats that grade average; 22 strikeouts and nine walks in 17.2 September innings, and a 4.9-inning leash. Deep leagues. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Ryan Johnson | LAA | @ SEA | 34% | 85 | On the grid. T-Mobile Park against Mariners bats that grade bottom six at home; a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three September starts. The best Saturday start on the wire, and the best start under 30 percent rostered on this sheet after Alvarez. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Kade Anderson | SEA | vs LAA | 46% | 67 | On the grid. The opposing starter in the same game, and the park helps him too: Angels bats grade below average. Whether Seattle starts a rookie on the last weekend is covered in the innings section. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Corbin Burnes | AZ | @ SD | 41% | 64 | On the grid. Petco against Padres bats on a bottom-three week, priced at the four and a half innings Arizona has built him up to; see the innings section. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Luis Gil | NYY | vs BAL | 14% | 63 | On the grid. The Yankees' Saturday against Orioles bats on a bottom-eight week, in the Bronx; 14 percent rostered. Five innings a start is the leash. |
| Sat Sep 26 | David Peterson | CHC | @ BOS | 30% | 56 | On the grid. Fenway against Red Sox bats that grade average at home; eight runs and ten walks in 14 September innings, and a 4.9-inning leash. Deep leagues. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Brayan Bello | BOS | vs CHC | 21% | 55 | On the grid. Fenway against Cubs bats on the worst hitting week on the board; a 4.9-inning leash holds the score to 55. Deep leagues. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Rhett Lowder | CIN | @ TOR | 20% | 49 | Announced. Blue Jays bats are the fifth-best hitting week; 16 runs in 12.1 September innings. Do not start him. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Walker Buehler | SD | vs AZ | 29% | 46 | On the grid; Ray takes Sunday. Petco, and the Diamondbacks arrive after three games at Coors; five runs in 12 September innings. Deep leagues. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Jonah Tong | NYM | @ WSH | 34% | 45 | On the grid. Washington's lineup at home is why the score is 48; 13 strikeouts and four runs in 11 September innings. Fine in a strikeout league. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Quinn Mathews | STL | @ MIL | 30% | 43 | On the grid. A 2.04 ERA in 17.2 September innings with 16 strikeouts; Milwaukee's park and Brewers bats hold the score under 50. |
| Sat Sep 26 | Brandon Young | BAL | @ NYY | 36% | 42 | On the grid. The Bronx against Yankees bats on a seven-game week. Not a start. |
| Sun Sep 27 | Troy Melton | DET | vs PIT | 51% | 63 | On the grid, on game 162. A 2.52 ERA on the season and a home start against a middle-of-the-pack lineup; 11 runs in 13.2 September innings is the recent form. The best Sunday single on the wire; Kikuchi's Sunday (63) and Ritchie's (57) are in the two-start table. |
| Sun Sep 27 | Dean Kremer | MIN | vs TEX | 24% | 49 | On the grid, on game 162. Home against Rangers bats; a 4.30 September ERA. Not a start. |
Over the cutoff but worth knowing: Tyler Mahle has Thursday against the Reds (94, 61 percent rostered), announced, with two runs in 19 September innings after six innings of one-run ball in Houston on Friday, Payton Tolle has Tuesday against the Guardians (84, 86 percent), announced, Trevor Rogers has Friday in the Bronx (89, 77 percent), Noah Cameron has Friday against the Guardians (80, 73 percent), and Bubba Chandler has Friday in Detroit (68, 60 percent).
Do not start: any pitcher at Coors Tuesday through Thursday (Michael Soroka Tuesday, Merrill Kelly Wednesday, Eduardo Rodriguez Thursday, and every Rockies pitcher); every Phillies starter except Wheeler and Sánchez's Saturday (Aaron Nola Wednesday is a 12 despite a 1.33 September ERA, and José Urquidy, activated Friday, has Thursday at 42); Robbie Ray Wednesday (41, and he is on most rosters); MacKenzie Gore both times (38 and 20, 70 percent rostered); Foster Griffin Wednesday in Boston (45, 74 percent rostered); Tanner Bibee Thursday in Boston (44); Sean Burke Friday against the Rockies (47, 69 percent); Erick Fedde Wednesday (30); Sandy Alcantara Saturday against the Braves (39, and 91 percent rostered); Dean Kremer Sunday (49); the Pirates' bullpen games Wednesday and Saturday around Jones, Skenes, and Chandler (Antwone Kelly Wednesday and Khristian Curtis Saturday by rotation order); Cesar Perdomo Wednesday in the slot Logan Webb's blister opened (a negative score); Jackson Kent Tuesday in Detroit (9); and any young pitcher on an eliminated team on Saturday or Sunday until he is in the announced probables.
Waiver Bats on the Best Schedules
Under 50 percent rostered, the seven-game Yankees and Rays first, then the teams with the best hitting weeks. The stat line is September through the 18th; the notes cover the season. Platoon note: the Guardians and Astros face about three expected left-handed starts each, half of one per game and the most in baseball this week, and the Red Sox, Padres, and Marlins face more than two, so check their left-handed bats day by day. The Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Athletics, and Tigers face less than one, so their left-handed bats are close to platoon-proof.
| Player | Team | Rost% | Bats | September (through the 18th) | Why this week |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | 27% | L | .380/.436/.660, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 13 R, 3 SB | The best September line on this sheet, on a seven-game week: four in the Bronx, three in Philadelphia, both parks that favor left-handed power. Thirteen homers and nine steals in 72 games. The Rays face 2.0 left-handed starts, so he sits some days, and Tampa Bay has clinched the division, so watch the lineups; the staffs he faces grade bottom six, but seven games and this form make him the first add on the sheet. |
| Richie Palacios | TB | 4% | L | .303/.410/.788, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 8 R, 3 SB | Five homers and 13 RBI in 14 September games, ten homers and 15 steals on the season, second-base eligibility, and the same seven Rays games. Four percent rostered because nobody looked. A left-handed bat, so the 2.0 lefty starts are the platoon risk. |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | 38% | L | .281/.349/.439, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 7 R, 1 SB | Seven games, all in the Bronx, and the Yankees face 0.8 left-handed starts. The matchup grades average; the volume and the park are the reasons to start him. Judge is on the injured list and Trent Grisham is likely out for the week, so his at-bats are safe for all seven. |
| Jose Caballero | NYY | 47% | R | .160/.241/.280, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB | Thirty-two steals and 14 homers on the season, and the shortstop at-bats until Chisholm is activated, which the Yankees expect Tuesday. After that he shares the infield with Lombard; seven games still make him a steals play in a category league. The September average is the cost. |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | 18% | R | .296/.345/.481, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 4 SB (8 G) | Four steals in eight games since the recall, 11 in 65 big-league games, and seven home games. The catch: Boone expects Chisholm back for Tuesday's opener, and the shortstop at-bats go with him. A Tuesday split doubleheader means Volpe likely starts one of the two games; after that he is a bench bat. |
| Heliot Ramos | NYY | 33% | R | .208/.345/.375, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R | Twelve homers in 105 games, a right-handed outfield bat getting starts with Judge and Grisham out, and seven home games. Deep leagues. |
| Austin Wells | NYY | 14% | L | .162/.311/.324, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB | The Yankees' catcher plays five or six of the seven, including one end of the doubleheader; 13 homers on the season. A seven-game week at catcher is rare, and that is the whole case. |
| Paul Goldschmidt | NYY | 13% | R | .333/.409/.389, 2 RBI, 4 R (9 G) | Eighteen homers in 102 games, hitting .333 this month in a part-time role, and the Yankees face 0.8 left-handed starts, so the platoon side is thin; the doubleheader is where he gets a start. Corner-infield depth for the seven games. |
| Nick Fortes | TB | 2% | R | .368/.455/.684, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R (9 G) | Tampa Bay's second catcher is hitting .368 this month and catches one end of Tuesday's doubleheader and most day games. Two-catcher leagues only, but seven Rays games put him ahead of most second catchers. |
| Yainer Díaz | HOU | 46% | R | .354/.392/.521, 2 HR, 5 RBI | The Astros have the best hitting week on the board, and their catcher is the one Astros regular under 50 percent. Twelve homers in 90 games on the season. Six road games in Seattle and Sacramento; the Athletics' park is the best run environment of the week. |
| Cam Smith | HOU | 30% | R | .191/.255/.426, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB | Twenty homers and 11 steals on the season, three homers this month, and the same six-game Astros schedule. Sacramento's park favors right-handed power (1.076). The average is the cost. |
| Nolan Arenado | AZ | 42% | R | .308/.400/.635, 5 HR, 9 RBI | Three games at Coors and three at Petco, 26 homers on the season, and five homers this month. Arizona faces 1.4 left-handed starts, so there is no platoon concern. |
| Henry Bolte | ATH | 39% | R | .298/.444/.579, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 14 R, 7 SB | Last week the schedule was poor and he was still worth rostering; this week the schedule is good too. Six home games in the best run environment on the board, 21 steals on the season, seven of them this month, and he is running every night. |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | 28% | L | .295/.328/.443, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R, 1 SB | Same six home games, eligibility at second base and the outfield, and the Athletics face 0.8 left-handed starts, so he plays every day. |
| Lawrence Butler | ATH | 49% | L | .226/.279/.484, 5 HR, 14 RBI | Five homers and 14 RBI this month on the same schedule; 17 homers and ten steals on the season. A left-handed bat facing 0.8 lefty starts in the best run environment of the week. The average is the cost. |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | 42% | L | .275/.362/.373, 5 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB | Seventy-five runs and 18 steals on the season from the top of the White Sox order, on the third-best hitting week: three in Kansas City, three at home against the Rockies. Chicago faces 1.6 left-handed starts, and the White Sox are a game out in the Central and a game up for the last wild card, so the regulars play. |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | 44% | R | .254/.338/.407, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, 1 SB | Fourteen homers and 85 runs on the season, two homers this month, second base and shortstop eligibility, and the same White Sox week. |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | 27% | L | .224/.345/.347, 7 R, 1 SB | A .272 average with 12 homers on the season and the same schedule, but Tommy Pham is back and taking outfield at-bats. The third White Sox bat under 50 percent worth considering. |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | 48% | R | .314/.417/.608, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R, 1 SB | Twenty-four homers on the season, four this month, and six home games against the Nationals and Pirates on the sixth-best hitting week. Detroit faces 0.8 left-handed starts and is two games from elimination, so the regulars play. |
| Max Clark | DET | 34% | L | .351/.456/.509, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 15 R, 4 SB | The Tigers' rookie is hitting .351 with 15 runs and four steals this month, and a left-handed bat on a team facing 0.8 left-handed starts plays every day. Six home games. |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | 50% | R | .286/.340/.429, 2 HR, 9 RBI | At the cutoff. Ten homers in 73 games, catcher and DH eligibility, and the fifth-best hitting week: three in Baltimore, then three at home against the Reds. |
| Josh Smith | TOR | 8% | L | .214/.361/.571, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R | Three homers in 13 September games and the same Blue Jays week. Toronto faces 2.1 left-handed starts, so check the opposing starter's handedness each day. Deep leagues only. |
| Moises Ballesteros | LAA | 17% | L | .357/.408/.595, 3 HR, 8 RBI | A catcher-eligible bat with three homers this month on the seventh-best hitting week, six road games in Sacramento and Seattle. The Angels face 1.4 left-handed starts. |
| Cole Carrigg | COL | 35% | S | .313/.324/.567, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, 3 SB | Four homers this month, three home games at Coors, then three in Chicago. A switch-hitter, so the Rockies' 1.5 lefty starts do not matter. Ten homers and 11 steals in 85 games. |
Not on a top schedule but worth noting: Jake Burger (TEX, 37% rostered) has three homers and 13 runs in 16 September games with 26 homers on the season, but he is hitting .196 this month; the Rangers' week grades middle of the pack, and three of the six games are at Target Field. Josh Jung (TEX, 38%) is 9 for 26 with a homer in six games since coming off the IL and is hitting .297 on the season. Adael Amador (COL, 14%) is hitting .264 with three homers and ten runs in 15 September games from the top of the Rockies' order, if you need a second baseman in a deep league.
Roster Moves That Change the Week
The moves since the week three sheet that affect championship week, newest first. Below the line is the standing IL; the top of it is the part to watch, because three of the biggest names on it can return during this week.
| Move | Effect |
| --- | --- |
| Chase Burns (CIN) to the 15-day IL, right groin strain, retroactive to Sep 19; Carson Spiers selected; TJ Friedl designated (Sep 20) | His season is over. Thursday in Atlanta, the start that was to be his thirtieth, goes to Brandon Williamson, who had been taking the bulk behind him, or to Spiers; neither is a start against Braves bats in the Braves' park. Burns is on 96 percent of rosters; drop him in weekly leagues. |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) to the 10-day IL, right calf strain (Sep 19) | An MRI Thursday found the strain; he did not play Friday or Saturday. Boone: "I don't have a timeline on him." The earliest he can return is the finale on the 27th, and Boone would not commit to the postseason. Max Schuemann was called up. Seven Yankees home games without the best hitter in the league; the rest of the lineup still plays seven. |
| Félix Bautista (BAL) activated from the 60-day IL; Christian Franklin activated; Tyler O'Neill to the 60-day IL; Cade Povich optioned (Sep 19) | Bautista returns to a Baltimore ninth inning that Ryan Helsley's shutdown had left to a committee, so Orioles saves are live again. Povich is back in Norfolk, and Baltimore has announced Baz Monday and Chris Bassitt Tuesday against the Blue Jays; Wednesday's starter is unnamed. |
| Logan Webb (SF) to the 15-day IL, right middle finger blister (Sep 18) | His season is over. Cesar Perdomo takes Wednesday against the Twins, a negative score; the Giants are eliminated. |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) expected back Tuesday (Sep 19) | Boone said Chisholm will be activated during the final homestand, which opens Tuesday against the Rays; Friday was his fourth straight day of hitting. Volpe's at-bats end when it happens. |
| Andy Pages (LAD) rejoins the club, targeting Tuesday (Sep 18) | Back from a hand fracture and hoping to be activated for the Padres series. Fifty percent rostered; a Dodgers outfielder for a week that grades below average for hitters. |
| Ryan Weathers (NYY) unlikely to pitch again in the regular season (Sep 19) | Forearm flexor; a side session Saturday decides playoff eligibility. Not on the grid. |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) activated (Sep 18); Trevor Larnach (MIN) to the 10-day IL, left wrist sprain (Sep 18) | Swanson returns to a Cubs week that grades the worst on the board for hitters. Larnach was hitting .320 with two homers this month; the Twins' week grades average. |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) to the 60-day IL (Sep 18); Kyren Paris (LAA) to the 10-day IL, finger fracture (Sep 18); Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ) released (Sep 18); Michael Lorenzen (TOR) designated for assignment (Sep 18) | Steer is done. Paris was a bench bat. Gurriel's release clears an outfield spot in Arizona for Jesús Sánchez. Lorenzen's departure leaves Toronto's Saturday to Yesavage or Arrighetti. |
| José Urquidy (PHI) activated (Sep 18); Edwin Díaz (LAD) activated and Landon Knack optioned (Sep 18) | Urquidy is on the grid for Thursday against the Brewers, a 37, in the worst pitching week on the board. Díaz returns to the Dodgers' ninth inning. |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) season-ending hip surgery (Sep 18); Willi Castro (COL) out for the season, foot and knee (Sep 16) | Cut both in weekly leagues. Buxton had been on the IL since August 30; Castro since September 5. |
| Josiah Gray (WSH) activated from the 60-day IL (Sep 17) | A sixth Nationals arm for the final ten days. Not on the grid; Washington's Saturday against the Mets is Connelly Early's debut per Paul Toboni and Jackson Kent by rotation order, and Gray is the third candidate for that game. Not a start until he is listed. |
| Taylor Walls (TB) activated (Sep 17) | Back for the Rays' seven-game week; a defensive shortstop with no fantasy claim. |
| Cade Povich (BAL) recalled to start Friday against the Brewers; Mason Barnett (ATH) recalled to start Friday against the Guardians (Sep 17) | Povich went 3.2 innings Friday and was optioned Saturday. Barnett went 3.1 innings with four walks and is on the Athletics' grid for Thursday against the Astros, with Brady Basso and Jack Perkins in the swing group, so the Athletics' Tuesday and Sunday starters are unsettled. |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) to the 10-day IL, left wrist (Sep 16); José Barrero selected | Orioles bats were already a bottom-eight hitting week. Holliday is on 42 percent of rosters; the final two games are the earliest return. Cut him in weekly leagues. |
| Blake Snell (LAD) leaves the 16th after one inning, groin | Threw from 90 feet Friday. Roberts is "more confident" he makes a normal start next week and has not set the day, and there is "a thought" of skipping him. The grid lists him twice, but the Dodgers are not starting anyone twice this week; one start at most, or none. |
| Kyle Finnegan (DET) to the 15-day IL, groin (Sep 17); Joey Loperfido optioned (HOU); Oswaldo Cabrera designated by the Yankees and claimed by the Reds (Sep 16 and 18) | Finnegan's loss moves Detroit's ninth inning. Loperfido and Cabrera were bench bats; nothing to add. |
| Robert Stock to the 15-day IL, finger numbness (Sep 16) | The Mets' six-man rotation is over. Manaea, McLean, and Thornton take Tuesday through Thursday in Arlington, Scott and Tong the weekend in Washington, and Manaea comes back Sunday for a two-start week. |
| Kris Bubic activated from the 60-day IL (Sep 16) | A sixth Dodgers arm for the final two weeks. The grid has Snell, Sasaki, Glasnow, Skubal, and Yamamoto; Bubic is the fallback if Sasaki's return slips or Snell's groin costs him a start. Forty percent rostered; not a start until he is on the grid. |
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY), Ryne Nelson (AZ), and Tommy Pham (CWS) activated (Sep 16) | Schmidt and Nelson return as depth with no rotation turn on the grid; Pham returns to a White Sox outfield on the third-best hitting week and takes at-bats from Peters and Benintendi. |
| JJ Wetherholt (STL) and Austin Martin (MIN) activated; Kaelen Culpepper (MIN) to the IL, hamstring (Sep 16) | Wetherholt returns to a Cardinals week that grades below average on the road. Martin returns to a Twins week that grades average; Culpepper is out. |
| Reynaldo López to the 15-day IL, shoulder inflammation (Sep 15) | The end of his regular season. JR Ritchie was recalled, has Tuesday against the Reds and Sunday in Miami, and is the best two-start pitcher on the wire. Drop López. |
| Jesús Luzardo (PHI) to the 15-day IL, shoulder (Sep 15) | The Phillies run Wheeler, Nola, Urquidy, Painter, and Sánchez. Wheeler and Sánchez's Saturday are the only Phillies starts in the worst pitching week on the board. |
| Kyle Freeland activated (Sep 15) | Takes Tuesday against Arizona at Coors, a negative score. Do not start him; do start Diamondbacks bats. |
| Gage Jump (ATH) and Tyler Wells (TB) to the 15-day IL; Pete Fairbanks (MIA) to the 15-day IL (Sep 15) | Jump leaves the Athletics with Springs, Lopez, Perkins, Basso, and Barnett for six home games, which helps Angels and Astros bats. Fairbanks is done for the season, which opens the Marlins' ninth inning. |
| Jake Fraley (TB) and Maikel Garcia (KC) activated (Sep 15) | Fraley returns to a Rays week that grades bottom five for hitters; Garcia returns to a Royals week that grades average, at home for all six. |
| Trey Yesavage (TOR) and Connelly Early (WSH) begin rehab assignments (Sep 15) | Yesavage's first outing was two-thirds of an inning and 34 pitches; he starts Monday the 21st in Baltimore on 45 to 50 pitches, about three innings, in a bulk role. Toboni says Early pitches Saturday the 26th against the Mets. |
| Emmet Sheehan optioned (Sep 14) | Still in the minors, on 58 percent of rosters; cut him in weekly leagues. |
| Keider Montero activated from the paternity list (Sep 14) | On the grid for Tuesday against Washington, a 46; Drew Anderson has Monday (43). |
| Rudy Martin Jr. to the 10-day IL, hamstring (Sep 14) | A Blue Jays bench outfielder on the fifth-best hitting week; Davis Schneider was recalled. |
| Jesús Sánchez claimed by the Diamondbacks from Toronto and activated (Sep 14 and 15) | A left-handed corner outfielder joins the second-best hitting week, three at Coors and three at Petco, and Gurriel's release Friday clears the outfield spot. Eleven percent rostered; a deep-league add once he is in the lineup every day. |
| Kyle Bradish to the 15-day IL, sports hernia (Sep 13) | Out for the regular season. He is on 72 percent of rosters; cut him in weekly leagues. The Orioles run Baz, Bassitt, Rogers, Brandon Young, and Kremer, with Povich optioned. |
| Willson Contreras activated (Sep 13); Xavier Edwards activated and Owen Caissie to the IL, lumbar stress reaction (Sep 13) | Contreras is back at first base for a Red Sox week that grades average at home. Marlins bats are a bottom-two hitting week; Edwards runs and is rostered nearly everywhere, and Caissie (19%) can be dropped. |
| Shohei Ohtani on the IL, eligible September 23 | Roberts wants ten to twelve at-bats against live pitching before activating him, and as of Friday he had not faced any, so Wednesday is not assured. Five games left from the 23rd: two against the Padres at home, three in San Francisco. If he is activated, every other Dodgers bat moves down a spot. He will not pitch again this season. |
| Roki Sasaki, blister, IL since August 27 | Threw four simulated innings on the 16th. Roberts said Friday that the next outing "will be as a starter" and that the club wants him to get a couple of starts before the playoffs, with no date named; the grid has him Wednesday. Wrobleski holds the slot on the board until the activation. |
| Jack Flaherty, rehab since September 6 | A rehab start Saturday the 19th in Toledo is the last step before activation. Detroit's plan is short starts or a bulk role, not a rotation spot. The grid has him Friday against the Pirates; the board keeps Andrew Sears there. Whichever Tigers pitcher is listed for Friday, expect a short outing. |
| Nathan Eovaldi and Edward Cabrera activated (Sep 12) | Eovaldi is off the Rangers' grid; Cody Bradford has the Wednesday start (55), and the Rangers run Gore, Bradford, Rocker, Trevor Williams, and deGrom, with Quantrill's Friday turn the open question. Cabrera is still not on the Cubs' grid; if he takes a weekend turn, it comes from David Peterson (Saturday in Boston, 44). |
| Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan off the Brewers' grid; Milwaukee announces May Tuesday and Henderson Wednesday | Both are in the bullpen group for October. Milwaukee's week is May Tuesday (62), Henderson Wednesday (79), Gasser Friday (67), Misiorowski Saturday (92), and an unnamed Sunday starter; Reviewing the Brew reports the club wants to rest Misiorowski and Henderson and could spot-start Colton Gordon or Garrett Stallings. |
| Trent Grisham (Sep 5), Ceddanne Rafaela (Sep 6), Luis Robert Jr. (Sep 6), Blaze Alexander (Sep 9), Dalton Rushing, Esmerlyn Valdez (Sep 12), Samuel Basallo (day to day, shoulder) | Position players still out as of September 19 who could return during the week: Grisham is "pretty far" into his running program, Rafaela was targeting this weekend, Robert has just begun baseball activities, Rushing is hoped for as a bench bat, and Basallo is out of the Orioles' lineup with a lingering shoulder problem. In the last week of the season, teams either activate everyone or shut everyone down. |
| Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Spencer Steer, Eli White (foot ligament), Lane Thomas (intercostal, four to six weeks), Jackson Holliday, Kaelen Culpepper, Kyren Paris | Position players out for the regular season, or close to it. Judge and Holliday are the two with any chance at the final weekend. |
| Jameson Taillon (Sep 5), J.T. Ginn (Sep 5), Shane McClanahan (Sep 4), Matt Waldron (60-day IL), Emerson Hancock (Aug 30), Braxton Ashcraft, Kyle Bradish, Chase Burns, Logan Webb, Reynaldo López, Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Pete Fairbanks | Pitchers out. Hancock is on the Mariners' grid for Friday, but Seattle has said any return would be in the bullpen, and the board keeps Bryce Miller there until he is activated. |
Steals: Who to Run On
Statcast caught-stealing above average through September 18, minimum 20 attempts, matched to this week's schedule.
| Most runnable | Team | Att | CS | CS% | vs avg | Who gets him this week |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Iván Herrera | STL | 36 | 1 | 3% | -6.0 | Pirates Tue to Thu (Oneil Cruz), Brewers Fri to Sun (Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang) |
| Victor Caratini | MIN | 51 | 6 | 12% | -6.0 | Giants Mon to Wed, Rangers Fri to Sun (Evan Carter, 16 steals) |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 41 | 4 | 10% | -5.7 | Same Giants and Rangers runners |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | 58 | 8 | 14% | -4.8 | Astros Tue to Wed, Angels Thu to Sun (Zach Neto) |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | 36 | 3 | 8% | -4.8 | Reds Tue to Thu (Elly De La Cruz), Marlins Fri to Sun |
| Hunter Feduccia | LAD | 51 | 7 | 14% | -3.6 | Padres Tue to Thu (Fernando Tatis Jr.), Giants Fri to Sun |
| Carson Kelly | CHC | 59 | 11 | 19% | -3.6 | Marlins Tue to Thu, Red Sox Fri to Sun (Jarren Duran) |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | 34 | 2 | 6% | -3.5 | Red Sox Tue to Thu (Duran again), Royals Fri to Sun (Bobby Witt Jr.) |
| Kyle Higashioka | TEX | 35 | 6 | 17% | -3.3 | Mets Tue to Thu, Twins Fri to Sun |
The August deep dive noted this matchup: the Pirates and Brewers host the Cardinals in championship week, and Herrera is still the most runnable catcher in baseball. Oneil Cruz faces him for three games, then Chourio and Turang for three, and Turang is the one most likely to be on your wire. Elly De La Cruz faces Baldwin Tuesday through Thursday, then Valenzuela, the best throwing catcher on the list, on the weekend. Jarren Duran faces Hedges and then Kelly, six games against two of the bottom nine. Witt faces Hedges for the final three.
| Best throwing | Team | Att | CS | CS% | vs avg | Who loses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Brandon Valenzuela | TOR | 57 | 18 | 32% | +7.9 | Orioles Mon to Wed, Reds Fri to Sun (De La Cruz) |
| Joe Mack | MIA | 55 | 15 | 27% | +7.6 | Cubs Tue to Thu (Pete Crow-Armstrong), Braves Fri to Sun (Ronald Acuña Jr.) |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | 57 | 19 | 33% | +7.0 | Dodgers Tue to Thu, Diamondbacks Fri to Sun (Corbin Carroll) |
| Adley Rutschman | BOS | 44 | 17 | 39% | +6.3 | Guardians Tue to Thu, Cubs Fri to Sun (Crow-Armstrong again) |
| William Contreras | MIL | 52 | 15 | 29% | +5.2 | Phillies Tue to Thu (Trea Turner), Cardinals Fri to Sun |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | 47 | 12 | 26% | +4.7 | Nationals Mon to Wed, Pirates Fri to Sun (Cruz again) |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | 58 | 17 | 29% | +4.2 | Red Sox and Royals, whenever he starts over Hedges |
Pete Crow-Armstrong has the worst running week on the board: Mack for three games, then Rutschman for three. De La Cruz's week splits in half, Baldwin then Valenzuela. Trea Turner faces Contreras and Milwaukee for three games, which the deep dive also flagged. Oneil Cruz gets Herrera for three and then Dingler for three.
Highest Edge Plays
| Play | Data |
| --- | --- |
| Seven games beats six: Yankees and Rays bats first. Yankees without Judge: Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Chisholm once he is activated, plus Spencer Jones, Caballero, Ramos, Wells, and Goldschmidt from the wire, and Fried Tuesday and Rodon twice. Rays: Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson, plus Mesa, Palacios, and Fortes from the wire. | NYY 7 home G; TB 7 G, 4 in the Bronx, 3 in Philadelphia |
| Astros bats for six road games: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña, plus Díaz and Cam Smith from the wire. Three of the six are in Sacramento. | HOU 5.51, 6 G, 3 in the best run environment |
| Diamondbacks bats, three at Coors then three at Petco: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, plus Arenado from the wire. 1.4 left-handed starters faced. | AZ 5.36, 6 G, 1.4 LHP starts |
| Athletics bats, six at home: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, plus Bolte, McNeil, and Butler from the wire. | ATH 5.19, 6 home G, run factor 1.103 |
| White Sox bats: Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, plus Antonacci, Meidroth, and Peters from the wire. | CWS 5.28, 6 G |
| Start Mariners pitchers at home: Gilbert twice, Bryan Woo Thursday (118), George Kirby Wednesday (78), Miller Friday (70), Anderson Saturday. Bench Mariners bats. | SEA arms 3.70, bats 4.09 |
| Angels pitchers in the same park: Reid Detmers Friday (82), Kikuchi Sunday, Ryan Johnson Saturday (85) and Grayson Rodriguez Thursday from the wire. | LAA arms 3.99, four games in Seattle |
| Gilbert twice, Rodon twice, Fried Tuesday, Sale Wednesday (109), Snell Friday (120), against four of the weakest lineups on the board. deGrom Saturday only; Cavalli Wednesday only. | SEA vs HOU and LAA; NYY vs TB and BAL; ATL vs CIN; LAD @ SF |
| Bench every Phillies pitcher except Wheeler and Sánchez's Saturday, every pitcher at Coors Tuesday through Thursday, and Cubs, Padres, Orioles, and Marlins bats. | PHI arms 5.21; CHC 3.96, SD 3.99, BAL and MIA 4.00 |
Too Long; Didn't Read
Why it matters: This is the championship week for most leagues and the last week of the regular season for everyone, and those two facts work against each other. The schedule edges are real: Astros bats on the road, Mariners pitchers at home, seven games in the Bronx, one Coors series to avoid. But on the last weekend, managers with nothing to play for set the lineups, and the projected Saturday and Sunday starts on this sheet will change more than any before them. Use the edges Tuesday through Friday, and check every lineup and every probable before the weekend. If your league runs a week earlier, the week three cheat sheet covers September 14 through 20, and the standard playoff deep dive graded this week in August.
Start or Sit Questions? General feedback? Leave a comment below and I will get to you ASAP.
Matchup grades are the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs each team's hitters face and the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups each team's pitchers face, computed from the MLB schedule for September 21 through 27, team run totals through September 17, and the park factor model behind the StreamMachine. Probable starters are the FanGraphs Roster Resource probables grid, which covers the full week; most starts through Thursday are announced and the weekend starts are projections, and every projected start can change. Stream Scores are from the FanRanked StreamMachine (50 = league-average start), priced by expected innings. Rostered percentages average the major fantasy platforms. Catcher throwing is Statcast caught stealing above average for 2026 through September 18, minimum 20 attempts. Injury moves are from the MLB transaction log, August 20 through September 19, and team comments reported through September 19.
Players in this article
- Blake Snell
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Merrill Kelly
- Michael Soroka
- River Ryan
- Troy Melton
- Aaron Judge
- Aaron Nola
- Adael Amador
- Andrew Alvarez
- Antwone Kelly
- Blade Tidwell
- Bryce Miller
- Bubba Chandler
- Byron Buxton
- Cade Cavalli
- Cal Quantrill
- Cam Smith
- Carlos Rodon
- Cesar Perdomo
- Chase Burns
- Chris Bassitt
- Chris Sale
- Connor Prielipp
- Cristian Javier
- Dean Kremer
- Drew Anderson
- Dustin May
- Elly De La Cruz
- Erick Fedde
- Foster Griffin
- Hayden Wesneski
- Henry Bolte
- Jack Perkins
- Jackson Holliday
- Jackson Kent
- Jacob deGrom
- Jake Burger
- Jared Jones
- Jarren Duran
About the author
JD, Founder at FanRanked. Former professional baseball player of 5 years, hardcore fantasy baseball fan for much, much longer.