Fantasy Baseball Playoff Cheat Sheet: Week 2, September 7 to September 13
By JD, Founder.
One page for the quarterfinal week of the fantasy baseball playoffs: the matchups that matter, every two-start pitcher priced start by start, the streamers worth a spot each day, the waiver bats on the best schedules, and the injury moves that changed the board.
TL;DR For most leagues the week of September 7 is the quarterfinal: win it or go home. This cheat sheet finds every edge on the board for September 7 through 13 and helps you stack them: the matchup board, every two-start pitcher priced start by start, streamers for each day, the waiver bats on the best schedules, catcher steal matchups, and the injury moves that change the week. Updated Monday, September 7, with the Brewers' rotation news; the FanGraphs probables grid, 13 announced starters, and the roster moves are through September 6. This is the free edition; Pro members had it a week early, and the week 3 sheet is theirs now.
The Matchup Board, Condensed
Hitters are graded by the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs they face this week; pitchers by the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups they face. League average is 4.48 runs per game. Every team plays six games this week except the Phillies and Braves, who play seven, four of them against each other.
| Best for Hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | Run Factor | | Best for Pitchers | G | Arms Face | vs League |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Blue Jays | 6 | 5.56 | +1.07 | 1.067 | | Rangers | 6 | 4.03 | -0.45 |
| Tigers | 6 | 5.39 | +0.91 | 1.011 | | Nationals | 6 | 4.07 | -0.41 |
| Yankees | 6 | 5.11 | +0.63 | 1.000 | | Orioles | 6 | 4.11 | -0.37 |
| Mariners | 6 | 5.11 | +0.63 | 0.993 | | Red Sox | 6 | 4.14 | -0.34 |
| Guardians | 6 | 4.89 | +0.41 | 1.017 | | Giants | 6 | 4.20 | -0.28 |
| Athletics | 6 | 4.83 | +0.35 | 1.103 | | Dodgers | 6 | 4.24 | -0.24 |
| Diamondbacks | 6 | 4.78 | +0.30 | 1.023 | | Cardinals | 6 | 4.25 | -0.23 |
| Red Sox | 6 | 4.73 | +0.25 | 0.994 | | Mariners | 6 | 4.25 | -0.23 |
The fades are below:
| Worst for Hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | | Worst for Pitchers | G | Arms Face | vs League |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Reds | 6 | 3.75 | -0.73 | | Reds | 6 | 4.85 | +0.37 |
| Rockies | 6 | 3.89 | -0.59 | | Angels | 6 | 4.84 | +0.36 |
| Mets | 6 | 3.99 | -0.49 | | Pirates | 6 | 4.76 | +0.28 |
| Cubs | 6 | 4.01 | -0.47 | | Tigers | 6 | 4.76 | +0.28 |
| Braves | 7 | 4.13 | -0.35 | | Blue Jays | 6 | 4.74 | +0.26 |
| Pirates | 6 | 4.17 | -0.31 | | Phillies | 7 | 4.68 | +0.20 |
Two things stand out. First, the top of the hitter board and the bottom of the pitcher board share jerseys: Blue Jays, Tigers, and Yankees bats feast this week while their arms face the wrong side of the same schedules, so this is a week to split teammates rather than ride a whole roster. Second, the Athletics flip. Their bats were the fade of week one; this week they get six home games in Sacramento at a 1.103 run factor and zero expected left-handed starts, the only team in baseball facing none. The Braves and Pirates are the new names in the hitter fades: four of Atlanta's seven games are against Phillies arms, and Pittsburgh spends the week at Chicago and Wrigley.
Two-Start Pitchers
Every arm lined up for two starts this week, priced start by start by the StreamMachine and grouped into the same tiers as the live Two-Start Pitchers board, which re-prices as probables are announced. Thirteen starts are announced so far, most of them Monday and Tuesday. Every other slot comes from the FanGraphs probables grid first and rotation order second, so it is marked "(p)" and can slide. Check the live board and FanGraphs before you lock a lineup.
| Wk | Pitcher | Team | Rost% | Score | Matchup | Score | Matchup | ERA | K | IP | xW | xQS |
| :---: | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :--- | :---: | :--- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| == Tier S: Elite Spots == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 101 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 100% | 107 | Mon vs CIN (p) | 95 | Sun @ MIA (p) | 3.09 | 13 | 13.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 97 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | 99% | 100 | Mon vs ATL | 94 | Sat @ ATL (p) | 3.71 | 15 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 94 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | 99% | 90 | Tue vs COL (p) | 98 | Sun vs NYM (p) | 3.23 | 13 | 11.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| == Tier A: Start With Confidence == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 83 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | 73% | 88 | Mon vs CLE (p) | 78 | Sun @ TOR (p) | 3.63 | 10 | 11.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 83 | Dylan Cease | TOR | 99% | 79 | Mon @ ATH (p) | 87 | Sat vs BAL (p) | 3.56 | 15 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 75 | Freddy Peralta | TB | 83% | 72 | Tue @ ATL (p) | 78 | Sun vs HOU (p) | 3.72 | 11 | 10.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| == Tier B: Solid Options == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 71 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU | 33% | 72 | Tue @ PHI (p) | 70 | Sun @ TB (p) | 3.54 | 10 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 71 | Troy Melton | DET | 59% | 71 | Mon vs MIN (p) | 71 | Sun vs COL (p) | 3.49 | 11 | 11.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 66 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | 42% | 61 | Mon vs TOR (p) | 71 | Sun vs SEA (p) | 4.28 | 9 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 66 | Logan Webb | SF | 95% | 63 | Mon vs STL | 68 | Sun vs SD (p) | 3.32 | 10 | 11.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 65 | Noah Cameron | KC | 67% | 67 | Mon vs AZ (p) | 63 | Sun @ BOS (p) | 3.59 | 10 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 62 | Chase Burns | CIN | 98% | 55 | Mon @ LAD | 69 | Sun @ MIL (p) | 4.06 | 12 | 11.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| | Innings limit since Aug 31; see the note below. Short starts, Williamson behind him. | | | | | | | | | | | |
| == Tier C: Thin Ice == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 56 | Eury Perez | MIA | 87% | 65 | Mon vs NYM (p) | 47 | Sun vs LAD (p) | 3.69 | 11 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 55 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | 24% | 62 | Mon @ BOS (p) | 48 | Sun @ WSH (p) | 4.35 | 10 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 55 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | 56% | 55 | Tue @ CWS (p) | 55 | Sun @ CHC (p) | 4.07 | 9 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 54 | Jose Soriano | TOR | 87% | 50 | Tue @ ATH (p) | 58 | Sun vs BAL (p) | 3.90 | 11 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 52 | Cody Bradford | TEX | 4% | 67 | Tue @ SEA (p) | 37 | Sun @ AZ (p) | 3.65 | 9 | 10.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 52 | Will Dion | WSH | 1% | 53 | Mon @ SD (p) | 52 | Sun vs LAA (p) | 4.36 | 9 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 50 | Patrick Sandoval | BOS | 13% | 49 | Mon vs LAA (p) | 52 | Sun vs KC (p) | 4.19 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 48 | Andrew Painter | PHI | 43% | 51 | Tue vs HOU (p) | 44 | Sun @ ATL (p) | 4.42 | 9 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 46 | Bryce Miller | SEA | 48% | 59 | Tue vs TEX (p) | 34 | Sun @ ATH (p) | 3.78 | 11 | 11.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 46 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | 70% | 50 | Mon @ MIL (p) | 43 | Sun vs PIT (p) | 3.88 | 10 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 46 | Sean Burke | CWS | 76% | 47 | Tue vs PIT | 45 | Sun @ STL (p) | 3.79 | 11 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| == Tier D: Stay Away == | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 44 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | 50% | 46 | Mon @ BAL | 41 | Sun @ MIN (p) | 4.10 | 10 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 37 | Michael McGreevy | STL | 37% | 34 | Mon @ SF (p) | 40 | Sun vs CWS (p) | 4.09 | 8 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 20 | Gabriel Hughes | COL | 5% | 19 | Tue @ NYY (p) | 20 | Sun @ DET (p) | 4.27 | 8 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Scores are Stream Scores (50 = league-average start). xW = expected wins, xQS = expected quality starts for the week. "(p)" marks a start projected from the FanGraphs grid or rotation order, not yet announced; projected starts slide, especially the Sunday ones.
What moved since Saturday. Logan Webb (announced Monday against the Cardinals, then the Padres Sunday) and Sean Burke (announced Tuesday against the Pirates, then the Cardinals Sunday) joined the two-start list. Davis Martin dropped to one start, Wednesday, after the White Sox flipped their order. Dylan Cease slipped from Tier S to Tier A on a softer Monday number in Sacramento. Max Fried is back on Wednesday against the Rockies, a 91. The Twins' grid lists Joe Ryan for Monday and Sunday, but he is not activated yet and the board has not priced him; if he is on your wire and gets the ball, the Tigers and Guardians are both top-five hitting weeks, so temper the excitement. Jonah Tong is announced for Monday in Miami and on the grid for Sunday in the Bronx, still unpriced for the same reason.
One note on Chase Burns. He is on the two-start list at 98 percent rostered, and he is not the play the table makes him look like. The Reds put him on an innings limit on August 31 after a 100-pitch start at Wrigley: no fixed number, but Brandon Williamson piggybacks behind him and Terry Francona has said he will pull Burns early. He had thrown 145 innings this year against 109 in all of 2025. Expect five innings or fewer Monday in Los Angeles, plan on no win, and treat the Sunday start in Milwaukee as a maybe. In a head-to-head week that is a one-start pitcher with a short leash, not a Tier B two-start arm.
One note on the fades. Bryce Miller is the bench call that will hurt the most. The grid gives him Sunday in Sacramento outright now that Emerson Hancock has dropped off it, and that slot faces the hottest run environment on the board after a 9.00 August ERA. Gabriel Hughes gets the Yankees and Tigers after a 10.03 August ERA. Boyd is 70 percent rostered for a week that grades 50 and 43. Cantillo's Monday in Baltimore is announced and still only a 46.
Best Available Two-Start Arms
Under 50 percent rostered, in order of conviction. The week column shows each start with its Stream Score (50 = a league-average start).
| Pitcher | Team | Rost% | The week | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hayden Wesneski | HOU | 33% | Tue @ PHI (72), Sun @ TB (70) | The best available two-start week, and just 13 percent rostered on ESPN. 3.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in August, then seven shutout innings with a 0.43 WHIP on September 2. Two even matchups, no bad park. |
| Jacob Lopez | ATH | 42% | Mon vs TOR (61), Sun vs SEA (71) | Still available in most Yahoo and ESPN leagues. 2.48 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 29 August innings, then six innings of two-run ball on September 1. The Toronto start is the harder half. |
| Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | 24% | Mon @ BOS (62), Sun @ WSH (48) | 2.93 ERA in five August starts; the 6.03 season ERA is the memory of April. Fenway Monday is the tougher half. Only 10 percent rostered on Yahoo. |
| Cody Bradford | TEX | 4% | Tue @ SEA (67), Sun @ AZ (37) | Tuesday in Seattle still plays. The Sunday start in Arizona slipped to 37 after his four-inning, five-run outing on September 1, so treat him as a one-start stream with a bonus. |
| Will Dion | WSH | 1% | Mon @ SD (53), Sun vs LAA (52) | Two league-average spots on the second-softest pitching schedule. 3.38 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 37 innings since his call-up. Nobody has him. |
| Patrick Sandoval | BOS | 13% | Mon vs LAA (49), Sun vs KC (52) | Both starts at home on the fourth-best pitching schedule. The 1.81 August WHIP is why he is still on wires. |
| Andrew Painter | PHI | 43% | Tue vs HOU (51), Sun @ ATL (44) | Seven shutout innings with six strikeouts on September 1 after a 3.95 August ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Sunday start is the weaker one. |
Just above the cutoff: Noah Cameron went from 54 to 67 percent rostered in three days, so the Yahoo window has mostly closed. If he is still out there in your league, Monday at home against Arizona (67) and Sunday at Fenway (63) are still a solid week on a 1.87 August ERA.
Innings Limits and Short Leashes
September is when teams start protecting young arms, and a pitcher on a limit is worth less than his matchup says: shorter outings, fewer wins, and the second start of a two-start week can vanish without notice. These are the arms on this sheet with a confirmed limit or a stated plan to shorten them, from the teams' own comments.
| Pitcher | What the team has said | What it means this week |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Chase Burns, CIN | Innings limit announced Aug 31 after a 100-pitch start. No fixed number; Brandon Williamson piggybacks behind him and Francona pulls him early. 145 innings this year against 109 in all of 2025. | Monday in Los Angeles is a five-inning start at best with no win attached. Treat Sunday in Milwaukee as a maybe. Not a two-start arm. |
| Kyle Leahy, STL | Innings "significantly curtailed" down the stretch to keep him healthy for 2027. 126 innings, 38 more than he threw as a reliever last year. Last start was four scoreless innings; piggyback starts or a bullpen move are on the table. No shutdown planned. | Saturday against the White Sox still grades an 80, but plan on four or five innings and no quality start. A ratios and strikeouts play, not a win play. |
| Kyle Harrison, MIL | Not an innings limit, a leash. Two straight 3.2-inning blowups (nine runs and five homers at Wrigley on August 31, six runs and four walks in Cincinnati on September 6), a velocity drop, and after Sunday's game Pat Murphy said he will "give a hard look" at moving him to relief "in the immediate future." | His turn falls on the weekend against the Reds and may not happen. Bench him where he is rostered, and do not stream him into the best pitching week on the board on the hope that it does. |
| Shane Drohan, MIL | Nearing his career high of 129 innings. Milwaukee has said it will flip him to the bullpen after one more turn through a six-man rotation. | Friday against the Reds is the best Friday start on the board if it happens. Harrison is the arm on the bubble now, which makes Friday safer than it looked; confirm the start that morning anyway. |
| Christian Scott, NYM | Career-high 108 innings. Interim manager Andy Green says he will not pitch on four days' rest again this season; skipped starts and an extended rotation are how they get there. | Already a skip on this sheet (Saturday in the Bronx). The limit is one more reason. |
| Zac Thornton, NYM | 61 innings; the Mets are weighing a shutdown for him and Scott, and recalled Jonah Tong as a sixth starter partly to spread their starts out. | Friday in the Bronx is a 42 anyway. Leave him. |
| Jake Bennett, BOS | 120 innings, past his college high of 117. Boston has built extra rest into his schedule since mid-August. | Tuesday against the Angels holds. The extra-rest pattern means a Sunday start the following week is not guaranteed; see the week 3 sheet. |
| Griffin Jax, TB | Back from elbow discomfort on a 60 to 65 pitch count, and he opened for Ian Seymour on September 5 rather than starting outright. | Wednesday in Atlanta is a 66 on the matchup, but three or four innings is the realistic outing. Low win odds, no quality start. |
| Hayden Wesneski, HOU | Fourteen months out for Tommy John; Espada says they are "mindful of workload." He has pitched into the fifth in five of six starts and no formal cap has been stated. | Still the best available two-start arm. Expect five or six innings per start, not seven. |
| Cristian Javier, HOU | Same Tommy John cohort; five-inning outings since his return. | Thursday in Philadelphia is a five-inning start. Priced that way already. |
How a limit changes the numbers. A Stream Score is a rate: it grades the innings a pitcher throws, not how many. The ERA and strikeout pieces scale down only once the expected outing drops under about five innings, and the win piece is tied to the team's odds, not the pitcher's. So a capped arm keeps most of his score. What collapses is the counting stats behind it. A starter has to finish five innings to get the win, and the model's share of team wins falls from 51 percent at 4.6 innings to 5 percent at two, so a four-inning start roughly cuts the pitcher's win odds by a third and a three-inning opener outing by half. Strikeouts drop in proportion to the innings. And a quality start needs six innings, so for anyone held to five or fewer the expected quality starts in the tables above should be read as zero, whatever the column says. In a points league or a categories league that counts wins, strikeouts, and quality starts, that is the real cost. In a ratios-only spot, a capped arm is nearly as good as the score says.
| Pitcher | Start | Board score | At the shortened outing | Win odds | Strikeouts |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Chase Burns | Mon @ LAD | 55 | 54 at 4.5 IP | 24% to 19% | 5.7 to 4.6 |
| Chase Burns | Sun @ MIL | 69 | 67 at 4.5 IP | 30% to 23% | 6.1 to 4.9 |
| Kyle Leahy | Sat vs CWS | 80 | 79 at 4 IP | 33% to 22% | 4.2 to 3.4 |
| Griffin Jax | Wed @ ATL | 66 | 61 at 3.5 IP | 24% to 15% | 5.2 to 4.0 |
| Shane Drohan | Fri vs CIN | 65 | 64 at 5 IP, if he starts | 34% to 33% | 5.6 to 5.4 |
| Jake Bennett | Tue vs LAA | 66 | 66 at 5.5 IP | 36% to 34% | 4.9 to 4.6 |
| Hayden Wesneski | Tue @ PHI, Sun @ TB | 72, 70 | 72, 70 at 5.3 IP | 33% to 32%, 31% to 30% | about half a strikeout less each |
Adjusted numbers re-run the StreamMachine's own formula with the expected innings lowered to what the team has described. Quality starts for Burns, Leahy, and Jax: treat as zero.
Not on a limit, for the record: Troy Melton says none has been relayed to him, Washington has said it will not cap Cade Cavalli, and Cam Schlittler is past 160 innings with no stated restriction, only a watchful front office.
Streamers by Day
Single starts under 55 percent rostered, ranked by Stream Score, dates per FanGraphs. Scores are for the matchup shown; 50 is a league-average start. Monday belongs almost entirely to the two-start arms above, and Thursday is a five-game slate, so plan the bench spots around Wednesday and Saturday, which is the deepest streaming day of the week.
| Day | Streamer | Team | Opponent | Rost% | Score | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mon Sep 7 | Robert Gasser | MIL | vs CHC | 16% | 47 | The only single start near 50 on a day the two-start arms own. Cubs bats grade bottom four. Fallback only. |
| Tue Sep 8 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | vs TB | 18% | 69 | Rotation-inferred, not on the grid, after Atlanta announced Elder for Monday. The score trusts the matchup; his 7.13 ERA since returning says wait for deeper leagues. |
| Tue Sep 8 | Jake Bennett | BOS | vs LAA | 51% | 66 | Angels bats on the road are a bottom-half matchup and Fenway plays down for right-handed power. 1.02 WHIP on the season. |
| Tue Sep 8 | Drew Anderson | DET | vs MIN | 9% | 52 | 2.66 August ERA, 5.2 innings of one-run ball on September 1, against a Twins lineup without Buxton. |
| Tue Sep 8 | David Peterson | CHC | @ MIL | 26% | 51 | Down to one start. A 2.83 August ERA behind a September 2 blowup; Brewers bats grade about average. |
| Tue Sep 8 | Sean Manaea | NYM | @ MIA | 28% | 50 | Announced. One start now instead of two; loanDepot park is the whole case. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Cal Quantrill | TEX | @ SEA | 42% | 95 | The best streamer start of the week, and it is not close. 1.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in August, seven shutout innings on September 1, in the best pitcher park in the league. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Kade Anderson | SEA | vs TEX | 47% | 66 | Three big-league starts, the last one four runs in five innings. T-Mobile Park and a below-average Rangers lineup do the work. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Griffin Jax | TB | @ ATL | 50% | 66 | Back from the IL on a 60 to 65 pitch count; he opened for Seymour on September 5. Braves bats grade bottom five, but three or four innings is the outing. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Jared Jones | PIT | @ CWS | 31% | 55 | Nine strikeouts in six shutout innings on September 3 after a rough August. White Sox bats grade below average. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Walker Buehler | SD | vs WSH | 27% | 52 | 3.16 August ERA and six innings of one-run ball on September 3. Nationals bats at Petco grade below average. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Blade Tidwell | SF | vs STL | 10% | 51 | Moved from Tuesday. Cardinals bats grade below average and Oracle Park does the rest. Five walks in his last start. |
| Wed Sep 9 | Davis Martin | CWS | vs PIT | 44% | 48 | Announced, and down to one start. Pirates bats grade bottom six; 5.2 shutout innings on September 2. |
| Thu Sep 10 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | @ SEA | 22% | 60 | Five-game slate and the best streamer on it. Same park and lineup that make Quantrill the play. August was ugly (6.00 ERA); the spot is not. |
| Thu Sep 10 | Cristian Javier | HOU | @ PHI | 14% | 58 | The other Thursday option. Eight strikeouts in five innings of one-run ball on September 4 is the best he has looked all year; the Phillies lineup is still the risk. |
| Thu Sep 10 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | @ CWS | 11% | 50 | Three shutout innings in relief to open September. A deep-league ratios play against White Sox bats. |
| Fri Sep 11 | Shane Drohan | MIL | vs CIN | 32% | 65 | The best Friday start on the board if he makes it. Reds bats have the worst hitting week in baseball. Milwaukee has talked about moving him to the bullpen, but Kyle Harrison is the arm on the bubble now after two straight blowups; confirm the start first. |
| Fri Sep 11 | Chris Bassitt | BAL | @ TOR | 21% | 61 | The score says the matchup plays. The 4.97 season ERA, and Toronto's hitting week, say cap expectations. |
| Fri Sep 11 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | vs CWS | 23% | 54 | Five runs in 4.1 innings on September 5 knocked the score down. 41 strikeouts in 32 August innings; the White Sox do not chase. |
| Fri Sep 11 | Max Scherzer | TOR | vs BAL | 24% | 53 | 3.62 ERA in six August starts. Orioles bats grade bottom eight on the road. |
| Fri Sep 11 | Martin Perez | ATL | vs PHI | 32% | 53 | 1.76 ERA in six August starts against a Phillies lineup that travels mid-series. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Tyler Mahle | ATL | vs PHI | 54% | 87 | 1.48 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in five August starts. The best Saturday start on the board; he sits right at the cutoff, so check the wire. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Andrew Alvarez | WSH | vs LAA | 18% | 80 | 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six August starts. Angels bats on the road are a bottom-half matchup. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Kyle Leahy | STL | vs CWS | 47% | 80 | 1.64 ERA in five August starts, Busch Stadium, and a White Sox lineup that does not chase. Innings limit: four or five innings, no quality start. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Dustin May | MIL | vs CIN | 40% | 79 | Reds bats have the worst hitting week in baseball. Two runs in 3.2 innings on September 5 is the reminder that the ratios can bite. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Randy Dobnak | KC | @ BOS | 9% | 66 | Last week's darling gave up six runs on September 1 and gets a harder road spot. Still fine; no longer the headliner. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Tyler Phillips | MIA | vs LAD | 12% | 65 | Dodger bats grade average this week and loanDepot park suppresses them further. Five shutout innings on September 2. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Anthony Molina | SF | vs SD | 2% | 61 | Moved from Friday. Two big-league outings, 14.1 innings, 3.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, in the best pitcher park in the league. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Jackson Jobe | DET | vs COL | 31% | 56 | Rockies bats away from Coors are a bottom-two matchup. |
| Sat Sep 12 | Brandon Pfaadt | AZ | vs TEX | 50% | 51 | 2.54 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in six August starts against a below-average Rangers lineup. The score undersells him. |
| Sun Sep 13 | Grant Holmes | ATL | vs PHI | 36% | 48 | Down to one start. Phillies lineup in a pitcher's park; a deep-league ratio play at best. |
Skip: every Rockies arm (both Hughes starts, Sugano Wednesday, and Feltner Thursday in the Bronx at a score of 15), every Reds arm, Chase Burns included now that he is on an innings limit (Dodger Stadium then Milwaukee is the second-toughest week on the board, and he will not pitch deep into either), Bryce Miller on Sunday in Sacramento, Mason Barnett or whoever the Athletics run out Wednesday against Toronto in J.T. Ginn's spot, Christian Scott Saturday in the Bronx, Seth Lugo Friday at Fenway after an 8.31 August ERA, and Erick Fedde Friday in St. Louis (score 26).
Waiver Bats on the Best Schedules
Under 50 percent rostered, on the teams with the best hitting weeks, plus two who just crossed the line. August lines are final; the notes carry the first five days of September. One platoon note before the table: the Mariners face 4.0 expected left-handed starts and the Blue Jays 3.6, the most in baseball this week, so check the daily matchup on their left-handed bats. The Athletics face zero and the Tigers face 0.6, which makes their lefties close to platoon-proof. Riley Greene came off the IL on September 1, so the Tigers lineup is whole for its home week; that trims the at-bats available to Keith and Valencia a little without changing the case.
| Player | Team | Rost% | Bats | August | Why this week |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | 29% | L | .322/.340/.456, 4 SB | The hottest bat on this list: 9 for 22 with two homers, five RBI, six runs, and a steal through September 5. Zero lefty starters coming and eligibility all over the infield. Rostered percentage jumped ten points this week; move now. |
| Colt Keith | DET | 22% | L | .231/.351/.338, 1 HR | Six home games against Minnesota and Colorado staffs, 0.6 lefty starts faced. The OBP is carrying the average. |
| Austin Wells | NYY | 14% | L | .246/.312/.435, 3 HR | Six home games and the short porch; the Yankees face just 1.2 lefty starts. Rockies pitching visits Tuesday. |
| Henry Bolte | ATH | 23% | R | .310/.366/.451, 3 HR, 19 R | Six home games in Sacramento, leading off plenty. Two homers and a steal in the first five games of September; 15 steals on the season. |
| Angel Martínez | CLE | 9% | S | .324/.359/.500, 2 HR, 15 RBI | Switch-hitter on the fifth-best schedule, so no platoon risk in Baltimore or Minneapolis. Homered on September 2. |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | 35% | L | .239/.290/.446, 4 HR, 5 SB | Power-speed lottery ticket with six games in the Bronx against COL and NYM arms. A homer, a steal, and five RBI already this month. |
| Andrés Giménez | TOR | 25% | L | .278/.333/.367, 7 SB | The steals source on the best schedule. Toronto does face 3.6 lefty starts, so check the daily matchup. |
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | 12% | R | .264/.278/.491, 2 HR | .313 with six homers in 28 games since his call-up. Playing time is the only question in a week Detroit never leaves home, and Greene's return makes it a sharper one. |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | 35% | L | .240/.307/.365, 2 HR | 22 homers on the season and the big Seattle week is here. He is the one to bench on lefty days, and Seattle faces four of them. |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | 52% | R | .341/.412/.534, 5 HR, 20 RBI | Just crossed 50 percent. The best hitting week in baseball: three in Sacramento, three home against Baltimore's staff. A quiet first week of September (4 for 19) does not change the schedule. |
| Lawrence Butler | ATH | 53% | L | .297/.388/.505, 6 HR, 4 SB | Just crossed 50 percent. Six home games at a 1.103 run factor and not one lefty starter to dodge. Seven RBI in the first five games of September. |
Roster Moves That Change the Week
Everything since the week one cheat sheet ran, plus the late-August moves that shape this board.
| Move | Effect |
| --- | --- |
| Jameson Taillon back to the IL, elbow (Sep 5) | One day after his activation. Spencer Miles keeps Toronto's Wednesday; Arrighetti stays out of the rotation for now. |
| J.T. Ginn to the IL, elbow (Sep 5) | The Athletics need a Wednesday starter against Toronto. Mason Barnett is the grid's guess; skip whoever it is. |
| Trent Grisham to the IL, hamstring (Sep 5) | Opens Yankees outfield at-bats for Spencer Jones in a six-game home week. |
| Bobby Miller activated (Sep 5) | Dodgers rotation depth; Yamamoto's two starts are unaffected. |
| Shane McClanahan to the IL, forearm (Sep 4) | The Rays hand Thursday in Atlanta to Nick Martinez (score 45). Griffin Jax, back from the IL, takes Wednesday. |
| Andre Pallante activated (Sep 4) | Slots in Wednesday at Oracle Park and pushes Leahy to Saturday, Liberatore to Friday. |
| Konnor Griffin activated (Sep 4) | One more bat for the Pirates in a week their schedule grades bottom six. |
| Kyle Teel (Sep 4) and Tommy Troy (Sep 4) activated | Depth for the White Sox and Diamondbacks; Arizona's lineup is intact for a top-eight hitting week. |
| Riley Greene activated (Sep 1) | The Tigers lineup is whole for six home games in the second-best hitting week. Start him and every bat around him. |
| Ketel Marte (Aug 31) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Sep 1) activated | Arizona's bats are a top-eight week and the lineup is finally intact. |
| James Wood activated (Sep 2) | Washington's arms have the second-softest week; now the bats have their best player back too. |
| Will Smith and Dalton Rushing activated (Sep 1) | Dodgers catching is back to normal. Feduccia's steal window (below) shrinks. |
| Ryan McMahon activated (Sep 1) | One more left-handed bat in the Bronx for six home games. |
| Luis Robert Jr. activated (Sep 1) | Baltimore's lineup faces the third-toughest pitching schedule; the steals still play. |
| Davis Martin activated (Sep 2) | Announced for Wednesday against Pittsburgh; one start this week, not two. |
| Kirby Yates to the IL, shoulder (Sep 3) | Pirates saves are up for grabs in a week their bats grade bottom six. |
| Eric Lauer to the IL, elbow (Sep 2) | The Dodgers rotation loses a back-end arm; Yamamoto's two starts are unaffected. |
| Byron Buxton to the IL, hip (Aug 30) | Twins bats were already a bottom-eight matchup; Tigers arms see a lighter lineup Monday through Wednesday. |
| Juan Soto (Aug 29) and Mark Vientos (Aug 31) activated | The Mets bats fade is about Miami's park and the Yankees series, not the names. Start your Mets stars, fade the middle. |
| Max Fried activated (Aug 29) | Lines up Wednesday against the Rockies in the Bronx, a 91 on the board and one of the best single starts of the week. |
| Roman Anthony and Trevor Story activated (Aug 30) | Boston is home all six against the Angels and Royals, the fourth-best pitching week and a top-eight hitting week. |
| Willson Contreras to the IL, hamstring (Aug 31) | Opens Red Sox at-bats in a good week to have them. |
| Xavier Edwards to the IL, thumb (Aug 31) | The Marlins lose their steals engine in a week their bats already grade below average. |
| JJ Wetherholt to the IL, wrist (Aug 30) | One fewer Cardinals bat for the Oracle Park series. |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes to the IL, groin (Aug 28) | Reds bats are the worst matchup in baseball this week; one fewer reason to look. |
| Kyle Freeland off the grid (IL since Aug 24) | Colorado's Friday in Detroit now goes to Mason Adams. The Rockies staff visits the Yankees and Tigers thin either way. |
| Shane Bieber still out (IL since Aug 24) | Not on the grid this week. Toronto's rotation leans on Soriano twice and Spencer Miles once. |
| Emerson Hancock off the grid (IL since Aug 30) | Seattle's Sunday in Sacramento is Bryce Miller's. A start to avoid. |
Steals: Who to Run On
Statcast caught stealing above average through September 5, minimum 20 attempts, laid over this week's schedule.
| Most runnable | Team | Att | CS | CS% | vs avg | Who gets him this week |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Iván Herrera | STL | 36 | 1 | 3% | -6.0 | Giants Mon to Wed, White Sox Fri to Sun |
| Victor Caratini | MIN | 47 | 6 | 13% | -5.5 | Tigers Mon to Wed, Guardians Fri to Sun (José Ramírez, 31 steals) |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | 36 | 3 | 8% | -4.7 | Phillies Mon and Fri to Sun (Trea Turner), Rays Tue to Thu |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 33 | 4 | 12% | -4.2 | Same Tigers and Guardians runners |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | 48 | 7 | 15% | -3.5 | Rangers Tue to Thu, Athletics Fri to Sun (Lawrence Butler and Henry Bolte again) |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | 34 | 2 | 6% | -3.4 | Orioles Mon to Wed, Twins Fri to Sun |
| Kyle Higashioka | TEX | 35 | 6 | 17% | -3.3 | Mariners Tue to Thu (Julio Rodríguez), Diamondbacks Fri to Sun |
| Carson Kelly | CHC | 53 | 10 | 19% | -3.0 | Brewers Mon to Wed (Jackson Chourio), Pirates Fri to Sun |
The Butler and Bolte note from the waiver table doubles here: the Athletics host Seattle for three, and Raleigh has slipped further, to fifth-most runnable in the league. Their steal upside is real on top of the park. Herrera has widened his lead as the most runnable catcher in baseball; the Cardinals face the White Sox at home Friday to Sunday.
| Best throwing | Team | Att | CS | CS% | vs avg | Who loses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Brandon Valenzuela | TOR | 56 | 17 | 30% | +7.2 | Athletics Mon to Wed (Bolte and Butler, hold the steal expectation early week), Orioles Fri to Sun |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | 56 | 19 | 34% | +7.1 | Nationals Mon to Wed, Giants Fri to Sun |
| Joe Mack | MIA | 48 | 13 | 27% | +6.0 | Mets Mon to Wed, Dodgers Fri to Sun |
| Adley Rutschman | BOS | 38 | 15 | 39% | +5.6 | Angels Mon to Wed, Royals Fri to Sun |
| William Contreras | MIL | 48 | 14 | 29% | +4.7 | Cubs Mon to Wed, Reds Fri to Sun (Elly De La Cruz) |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | 53 | 16 | 30% | +3.9 | Orioles and Twins, whenever he starts over Hedges |
Elly's week splits in two: the Dodgers' Hunter Feduccia (-3.1) is runnable Monday through Wednesday, but Will Smith is back from the IL and will take most of those starts, then Contreras closes the door on the weekend. Front-load your steal expectations and check the Dodgers' posted catcher. And note Cleveland carries both extremes: Hedges is the one to run on, Bailey is the one to avoid, so check the posted lineup before you chase a steal against the Guardians.
Highest Edge Plays
| Play | Data |
| --- | --- |
| Start every Blue Jays bat: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Kazuma Okamoto, plus Kirk and Giménez if they are on your wire. | TOR 5.56, 3 G in Sacramento |
| Ride Tigers bats at home all six: Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, plus Keith and Valencia off the wire. | DET 5.39, 0.6 LHP starts |
| Yankees bats host the Rockies and Mets: Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., plus Wells and Jones off the wire. | NYY 5.11, 6 home G |
| The Seattle hitting week is finally here: Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh all week; watch lefty-day platoons on the rest. | SEA 5.11, 4.0 LHP starts |
| Trust Rangers arms on the road: Quantrill Wednesday, Rocker Thursday, Bradford Tuesday. | TEX 4.03 |
| Stream the Athletics week from both sides: Lopez twice on the mound, McNeil, Bolte, and Butler at the plate. | ATH arms 4.43, bats 4.83 |
| Split the shared jerseys: Blue Jays, Tigers, and Yankees bats start; their marginal arms sit. | TOR arms 4.74, DET 4.76 |
| Bench every Rockies arm and every Reds bat, including the good ones. | COL @ NYY and DET; CIN 3.75 |
Too Long; Didn't Read
Why it matters: This is the quarterfinal week for most leagues, and it is also the last week the wire is deep: every playoff team in your league goes shopping next Sunday night. Grab the two-start arms before the tables above become common knowledge, hold a bench spot for Quantrill's Wednesday start, and split the Toronto and Detroit jerseys the right way. If your playoffs started a week early, last week's week one cheat sheet is the one you want; the week 3 sheet covers the semifinal week and is free to everyone as of Sunday, September 13, and the standard playoff deep dive grades the championship week after that.
Start or Sit Questions? General feedback? Leave a comment below and I will get to you ASAP.
Matchup grades are the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs each team's hitters face and the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups each team's pitchers face, computed from the MLB schedule for September 7 through 13, team run totals through September 5, and the park factor model behind the StreamMachine. Probable starters are from the MLB announced probables, the FanGraphs Roster Resource probables grid, and rotation order as of September 6; 13 starts are announced, so every projected start can slide. Stream Scores are from the FanRanked StreamMachine (50 = league-average start). Rostered percentages average the major fantasy platforms. Catcher throwing is Statcast caught stealing above average for 2026 through September 5, minimum 20 attempts. Injury moves are from the MLB transaction log, August 20 through September 5.
Players in this article
- Bryce Miller
- Riley Greene
- Alejandro Kirk
- Andre Pallante
- Andrew Alvarez
- Angel Martínez
- Austin Wells
- Bobby Miller
- Brandon Williamson
- Byron Buxton
- Cade Cavalli
- Cal Quantrill
- Cam Schlittler
- Chase Burns
- Christian Scott
- Cody Bradford
- Colt Keith
- Davis Martin
- Dustin May
- Dylan Cease
- Emerson Hancock
- Erick Fedde
- Gabriel Hughes
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Hayden Wesneski
- Henry Bolte
- Hunter Feduccia
- J.T. Ginn
- Jacob Lopez
- James Wood
- Jameson Taillon
- Jeff McNeil
- Joe Ryan
- Jonah Tong
- Ketel Marte
- Kumar Rocker
- Kyle Freeland
- Kyle Leahy
- Lawrence Butler
- Logan Webb
About the author
JD, Founder at FanRanked. Former professional baseball player of 5 years, hardcore fantasy baseball fan for much, much longer.