FanRanked's own model for the 2026 season: team totals, player usage, regressed efficiency and market priors, backtested on 2019 to 2024 against naive and ADP baselines. Every quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end, kicker and defense gets a full stat line, a fantasy point total in PPR, half PPR and standard scoring, and a floor and a ceiling. Open any row to see the usage, efficiency, game-environment and availability inputs the number was built from. Draft with them beside the redraft rankings and the ADP board.
FanRanked runs its own model: team totals first (expected plays, pass rate and implied points per team), then each player's share of those touches (targets, carries, red-zone looks and snaps), which is far more stable year to year than efficiency. Efficiency is applied next and regressed hard toward positional means by sample size, so a small hot streak does not become a season-long forecast. Availability, game environment and a market prior built from our own consensus boards and ADP finish the number. The model is backtested on the 2019 to 2024 seasons against naive and ADP baselines, and the version that produced the numbers on this page is labelled at the top of it.
No. Every number on this page comes from the FanRanked model. Third-party projection feeds are used in one place only, the internal backtest that scores our model against a benchmark, and they never touch a number you see.
The floor is the 10th percentile outcome and the ceiling is the 90th, so roughly eight seasons in ten land between them. They come from how much players at that position and workload level have actually varied week to week, which is why a high-volume back has a tighter band than a boom-or-bust deep threat.