If your fantasy playoffs start August 31, this is your quarterfinal week. Every team's Aug 31 to Sep 6 slate graded by the matchups that matter: the pitching your bats will face, the offenses your arms will face, the parks, the platoon splits, and which catchers you can run on.
TL;DR Plenty of leagues start their playoffs on August 31, a week before the structure our playoff deep dive covered. This is the matchup board for that one week, August 31 through September 6.
Why it matters: In a one-week head-to-head matchup, the schedule is most of the game. An extra game, a Coors series, or a platoon edge can decide a quarterfinal on its own, and you can set most of this up before the week starts.
Our standard playoff deep dive graded the three weeks from September 7 through 27, the most common playoff window. But shorter regular seasons and four-round brackets put plenty of leagues' first playoff matchup in the week of August 31, and that week has its own board. This article grades it on its own, one week, nothing bundled. If your playoffs run past September 6, the standard article covers every week after this one.
The method is identical. For hitters, the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the pitching staffs they will face this week. For pitchers, the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups they will face. Then games played, lefty-righty exposure, and which catchers your runners can steal on.
League average is 4.48 runs per game, so Bats Face above 4.48 is a tailwind for hitters and Arms Face below 4.48 is a tailwind for pitchers. Lefty SP is the number of left-handed starters the team should expect to see this week.
| Team | G | Home | Bats Face | Arms Face | Lefty SP | Run Factor | HR L | HR R |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STL | 6 | 0 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 2.1 | 1.073 | 1.083 | 1.131 |
| COL | 6 | 6 | 5.23 | 5.13 | 1.3 | 1.153 | 1.106 | 1.041 |
| BAL | 7 | 4 | 5.02 | 4.97 | 3.6 | 1.068 | 1.102 | 1.013 |
| PIT | 6 | 6 | 4.85 | 4.23 | 1.3 | 1.042 | 0.986 | 0.871 |
| ATL | 6 | 1 | 4.81 | 4.84 | 2.0 | 1.034 | 1.081 | 1.010 |
| CWS | 7 | 3 | 4.81 | 4.54 | 0.5 | 0.988 | 1.066 | 1.010 |
| MIA | 7 | 3 | 4.79 | 4.79 | 2.3 | 1.010 | 0.962 | 0.956 |
| LAD | 6 | 6 | 4.69 | 4.80 | 1.4 | 0.992 | 1.059 | 1.220 |
| AZ | 6 | 3 | 4.66 | 4.60 | 1.4 | 1.017 | 0.968 | 1.048 |
| TOR | 6 | 0 | 4.66 | 4.14 | 2.6 | 1.019 | 0.972 | 0.933 |
| DET | 7 | 0 | 4.61 | 4.35 | 2.9 | 1.024 | 1.027 | 0.942 |
| SF | 7 | 0 | 4.61 | 4.68 | 1.5 | 1.017 | 0.967 | 0.954 |
| SEA | 7 | 4 | 4.54 | 4.14 | 4.6 | 0.931 | 0.946 | 0.928 |
| BOS | 7 | 3 | 4.54 | 4.25 | 0.9 | 1.000 | 1.016 | 0.957 |
| HOU | 7 | 7 | 4.48 | 4.71 | 1.9 | 1.006 | 1.070 | 1.064 |
| NYM | 6 | 3 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 1.1 | 1.002 | 0.968 | 1.047 |
| MIL | 7 | 0 | 4.41 | 4.52 | 2.7 | 0.975 | 1.055 | 1.086 |
| PHI | 6 | 3 | 4.41 | 4.86 | 2.1 | 1.048 | 1.013 | 1.031 |
| KC | 6 | 6 | 4.40 | 4.25 | 0.0 | 1.018 | 0.901 | 0.954 |
| TEX | 7 | 7 | 4.40 | 4.05 | 3.2 | 0.901 | 1.013 | 0.932 |
| NYY | 6 | 0 | 4.34 | 4.02 | 1.7 | 0.972 | 1.014 | 1.034 |
| LAA | 6 | 3 | 4.33 | 4.81 | 1.0 | 1.016 | 1.017 | 0.929 |
| SD | 6 | 3 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 2.1 | 0.995 | 1.074 | 1.101 |
| CLE | 7 | 7 | 4.19 | 4.38 | 1.5 | 1.020 | 1.043 | 0.912 |
| TB | 7 | 3 | 4.18 | 3.85 | 2.6 | 0.942 | 1.001 | 0.980 |
| MIN | 6 | 3 | 4.14 | 4.65 | 1.9 | 0.997 | 1.033 | 0.960 |
| CIN | 6 | 6 | 4.14 | 4.79 | 2.0 | 1.036 | 1.168 | 1.120 |
| WSH | 6 | 3 | 3.97 | 4.83 | 1.8 | 1.004 | 1.040 | 1.122 |
| ATH | 7 | 0 | 3.85 | 3.53 | 1.2 | 0.891 | 0.992 | 0.937 |
| CHC | 7 | 4 | 3.83 | 4.53 | 1.8 | 0.959 | 0.985 | 1.007 |
The rest of this article is that table, broken into the decisions it implies.
| Best for hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | Run Factor | Home G |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cardinals | 6 | 5.25 | +0.77 | 1.073 | 0 |
| Rockies | 6 | 5.23 | +0.76 | 1.153 | 6 |
| Orioles | 7 | 5.02 | +0.54 | 1.068 | 4 |
| Pirates | 6 | 4.85 | +0.38 | 1.042 | 6 |
| Braves | 6 | 4.81 | +0.34 | 1.034 | 1 |
| White Sox | 7 | 4.81 | +0.33 | 0.988 | 3 |
| Marlins | 7 | 4.79 | +0.31 | 1.010 | 3 |
| Dodgers | 6 | 4.69 | +0.21 | 0.992 | 6 |
This week runs through Coors Field, and the teams passing through it own the board. The Cardinals have the best hitting week in baseball: three at Dodger Stadium, then three at Coors from Friday through Sunday against the pitching staff that bleeds the most runs in the league. The Rockies are home all week hosting the Orioles and those same Cardinals. The Orioles open the week with three at Coors before coming home for four. If a bat on one of these three teams is sitting on your bench or your waiver wire, this is its week.
| Worst for hitters | G | Bats Face | vs League | Run Factor | Home G |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cubs | 7 | 3.83 | -0.65 | 0.959 | 4 |
| Athletics | 7 | 3.85 | -0.63 | 0.891 | 0 |
| Nationals | 6 | 3.97 | -0.50 | 1.004 | 3 |
| Reds | 6 | 4.14 | -0.34 | 1.036 | 6 |
| Twins | 6 | 4.14 | -0.34 | 0.997 | 3 |
| Rays | 7 | 4.18 | -0.30 | 0.942 | 3 |
| Guardians | 7 | 4.19 | -0.29 | 1.020 | 7 |
| Padres | 6 | 4.23 | -0.24 | 0.995 | 3 |
The Cubs open with four straight against Milwaukee's staff, the best run prevention in the National League, and the Athletics play all seven games on the road in Arlington and Seattle, the two most run-suppressing parks in baseball. Between the two of them there is not a single favorable hitting day all week.
Same idea, reversed. Lower is better here.
| Softest lineups faced | G | Arms Face | vs League | Run Factor |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Athletics | 7 | 3.53 | -0.95 | 0.891 |
| Rays | 7 | 3.85 | -0.63 | 0.942 |
| Yankees | 6 | 4.02 | -0.46 | 0.972 |
| Rangers | 7 | 4.05 | -0.43 | 0.901 |
| Mariners | 7 | 4.14 | -0.34 | 0.931 |
| Blue Jays | 6 | 4.14 | -0.33 | 1.019 |
| Padres | 6 | 4.21 | -0.27 | 0.995 |
| Pirates | 6 | 4.23 | -0.25 | 1.042 |
The Athletics' number is the single best week any staff gets in either playoff window: nearly a full run per game below league average, built from the Texas and Seattle lineups in the two best pitcher parks in the league. The same seven road games that bury their bats make every Athletics arm a stream this week. Yankees arms quietly get a full week in Anaheim and Petco.
And the arms with the hardest week.
| Toughest lineups faced | G | Arms Face | vs League | Run Factor |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cardinals | 6 | 5.25 | +0.78 | 1.073 |
| Rockies | 6 | 5.13 | +0.66 | 1.153 |
| Orioles | 7 | 4.97 | +0.50 | 1.068 |
| Phillies | 6 | 4.86 | +0.38 | 1.048 |
| Braves | 6 | 4.84 | +0.36 | 1.034 |
| Nationals | 6 | 4.83 | +0.35 | 1.004 |
| Angels | 6 | 4.81 | +0.33 | 1.016 |
| Dodgers | 6 | 4.80 | +0.32 | 0.992 |
Coors cuts both ways. The same trip that makes Cardinals bats the play of the week makes Cardinals arms the fade of the week: the Dodgers lineup, then three days at altitude. Bench them all, including good ones.
These are the widest splits on the board by team.
| Team | Bats Face | vs Lg | Arms Face | vs Lg |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cardinals | 5.25 | +0.77 | 5.25 | +0.78 |
| Rockies | 5.23 | +0.76 | 5.13 | +0.66 |
| Orioles | 5.02 | +0.54 | 4.97 | +0.50 |
| Braves | 4.81 | +0.34 | 4.84 | +0.36 |
| Athletics | 3.85 | -0.63 | 3.53 | -0.95 |
| Rays | 4.18 | -0.30 | 3.85 | -0.63 |
| Yankees | 4.34 | -0.14 | 4.02 | -0.46 |
| Cubs | 3.83 | -0.65 | 4.53 | +0.05 |
St. Louis is the cleanest one-team decision of the week: start every Cardinal bat, sit every Cardinal arm. The Athletics are the mirror image. Note the Mariners are missing from the extremes on purpose: their bats grade close to neutral this week, so the enormous Seattle hitting weeks in our standard article start September 7, not now.
Fourteen teams play seven games this week; the other sixteen play six. In a one-week matchup that seventh game is worth roughly four extra plate appearances per bat, and often a whole extra start.
| Team | G | Home G |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Orioles | 7 | 4 |
| White Sox | 7 | 3 |
| Marlins | 7 | 3 |
| Tigers | 7 | 0 |
| Giants | 7 | 0 |
| Mariners | 7 | 4 |
| Red Sox | 7 | 3 |
| Astros | 7 | 7 |
| Brewers | 7 | 0 |
| Rangers | 7 | 7 |
| Guardians | 7 | 7 |
| Rays | 7 | 3 |
| Athletics | 7 | 0 |
| Cubs | 7 | 4 |
Cleveland and Detroit get their seventh game from a doubleheader against each other on September 4, and Houston, Texas, and Cleveland spend the entire week at home. Of the six-game teams, the Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Royals, and Reds never leave home, while the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Yankees never see their own park.
We weighted every team's week by the run factor of the park each game is played in, using the same park model that powers the StreamMachine, then did it again for home runs by batter handedness.
| Best Run Environments | G | Run Factor | Home G | | Worst run environments | G | Run Factor | Home G |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rockies | 6 | 1.153 | 6 | | Athletics | 7 | 0.891 | 0 |
| Cardinals | 6 | 1.073 | 0 | | Rangers | 7 | 0.901 | 7 |
| Orioles | 7 | 1.068 | 4 | | Mariners | 7 | 0.931 | 4 |
| Phillies | 6 | 1.048 | 3 | | Rays | 7 | 0.942 | 3 |
| Pirates | 6 | 1.042 | 6 | | Cubs | 7 | 0.959 | 4 |
| Reds | 6 | 1.036 | 6 | | Yankees | 6 | 0.972 | 0 |
The Coors ledger for the week, because visitors get the altitude too.
| Coors visitors | Games at Coors | Dates |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Orioles | 3 | Mon Aug 31 to Wed Sep 2 |
| Cardinals | 3 | Fri Sep 4 to Sun Sep 6 |
The handedness splits add one more layer.
| HR park, RHB | Factor | | HR park, LHB | Factor |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dodgers | 1.220 | | Reds | 1.168 |
| Cardinals | 1.131 | | Rockies | 1.106 |
| Nationals | 1.122 | | Orioles | 1.102 |
| Reds | 1.120 | | Cardinals | 1.083 |
| Padres | 1.101 | | Braves | 1.081 |
| Pirates | 0.871 | | Royals | 0.901 |
| Guardians | 0.912 | | Mariners | 0.946 |
| Mariners | 0.928 | | Marlins | 0.962 |
| Angels | 0.929 | | Giants | 0.967 |
| Rangers | 0.932 | | Diamondbacks | 0.968 |
The Dodgers' 1.220 for right-handed power is the highest single-week number we have measured: six home games for Andy Pages, Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez in a park set that loves their swings, hosting the Cardinals and Nationals staffs. On the other side, Pittsburgh's 0.871 for righty power takes real thump off an otherwise strong Pirates hitting week.
We measured each opponent's share of starts made by left-handers this season, then summed it across the week.
| Most lefties faced | G | Exp. LHP Starts | Per Game | | Fewest lefties faced | G | Exp. LHP Starts | Per Game |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mariners | 7 | 4.6 | 0.65 | | Royals | 6 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Orioles | 7 | 3.6 | 0.51 | | White Sox | 7 | 0.5 | 0.08 |
| Rangers | 7 | 3.2 | 0.46 | | Red Sox | 7 | 0.9 | 0.12 |
| Tigers | 7 | 2.9 | 0.41 | | Angels | 6 | 1.0 | 0.17 |
| Brewers | 7 | 2.7 | 0.39 | | Mets | 6 | 1.1 | 0.19 |
| Blue Jays | 6 | 2.6 | 0.44 | | Athletics | 7 | 1.2 | 0.17 |
| Rays | 7 | 2.6 | 0.37 | | Rockies | 6 | 1.3 | 0.22 |
| Marlins | 7 | 2.3 | 0.33 | | Pirates | 6 | 1.3 | 0.22 |
Seattle sees a left-handed starter in roughly two of every three games this week, three days against Boston's lefty-heavy rotation and then four against an Athletics rotation that is the most left-handed in baseball. Right-handed Mariners bats get a real platoon boost; left-handed Mariners bats will sit more than their owners expect. At the other end, Kansas City faces zero expected lefty starts, so left-handed Royals bats are platoon-proof all week.
Stolen bases are the streakiest category in a weekly matchup, and in a one-week playoff round they can decide it outright. The catcher data is unchanged from our standard-window article; the overlay below is this week's schedule.
Start with the worst of them. Ivan Herrera has caught one of the 31 runners who have tested him this season. When Herrera is behind the plate, every runner on the other side has a green light.
| Most Runnable Catcher | Team | Attempts | Caught | CS% | vs. avg |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ivan Herrera | STL | 31 | 1 | 3% | -5.1 |
| Victor Caratini | MIN | 45 | 6 | 13% | -5.1 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | 33 | 3 | 9% | -4.0 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 30 | 4 | 13% | -3.8 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | 33 | 2 | 6% | -3.5 |
| Carson Kelly | CHC | 44 | 7 | 16% | -3.4 |
| Jonah Heim | ATH | 39 | 6 | 15% | -2.6 |
Now lay this week's schedule over it.
| Matchup | Who it pays |
| --- | --- |
| Brewers at Cubs, four games | Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang open the week with four straight against Carson Kelly. |
| Cardinals at Dodgers, then at Rockies | Herrera on the road for six: Dodgers runners get him for three, Rockies runners for three more. |
| Braves at Phillies, Sep 4 to 6 | Trea Turner runs on Drake Baldwin all weekend. |
| Tigers, then White Sox, vs Twins | Anyone with legs on either roster gets Caratini and Jeffers. |
| Mariners host the Athletics, four games | Julio Rodriguez gets four days of Jonah Heim. |
The flip side matters just as much. These are the arms that shut the category off.
| Best throwing catcher | Team | Attempts | Caught | CS% | vs. average |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Brandon Valenzuela | TOR | 53 | 15 | 28% | +5.7 |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | 46 | 16 | 35% | +5.6 |
| William Contreras | MIL | 41 | 13 | 32% | +5.4 |
| Adley Rutschman | BOS | 36 | 14 | 39% | +5.1 |
| Joe Mack | MIA | 39 | 11 | 28% | +5.0 |
| Luis Torrens | NYM | 26 | 9 | 35% | +3.8 |
The big loser is Elly De La Cruz. His week runs through Freddy Fermin's Padres and William Contreras's Brewers back to back, the second and third best throwing catchers in the league. In the standard window his steals survive his matchups; this week they don't. Guardians runners spend three days against Toronto's Brandon Valenzuela, and Yankee runners close the week against Fermin in San Diego.
One week means lineup and waiver moves, not blockbusters. In order of conviction:
| Play | Why | Data |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Start every Cardinal bat | Best hitting week in baseball: Dodger Stadium, then three at Coors. Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Herrera himself all play up. Righty power gets the 1.131 park set. | Bats 5.25, +0.77 |
| Bench every Cardinal arm | The same trip, from the mound. The Dodgers lineup, then altitude. No Cardinal pitcher is safe this week. | Arms 5.25, +0.78 |
| Stream Athletics arms | The softest week any staff gets in either window: Texas and Seattle lineups in the league's two best pitcher parks. Whoever is on your wire, this is their week. | Arms 3.53, -0.95 |
| Ride Rockies and Orioles bats | Jake McCarthy, Ezequiel Tovar, and TJ Rumfield are home all week at a 1.153 run factor; Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, and Samuel Basallo get three at Coors plus a seventh game. | COL 1.153, BAL 7 G |
| Trust Dodgers righty power | Six home games at the week's best right-handed power factor, against the two worst pitching staffs on the board. | HR RHB 1.220 |
| Stream Rays and Yankees arms | Tampa Bay draws the Mets and a trip to Arlington; the Yankees get a full week in Anaheim and Petco. | TB 3.85, NYY 4.02 |
| Fade the Reds both ways | Bottom-five hitting matchups, bottom-five pitching matchups, and Elly's running lanes closed by Fermin and Contreras. The one silver lining is six home games in a park inflating homers from both sides. | Bats 4.14, arms 4.79 |
| Use the platoon edges | Right-handed Mariners feast on the lefty parade; left-handed Royals bats never see a lefty starter all week. | SEA 0.65 LHP/g, KC 0.00 |
Why it matters: In a one-week matchup the schedule is most of the game. Set your lineup for the week your league actually plays, and if your playoffs continue past September 6, the standard playoff deep dive grades every week after this one.
Matchup grades are the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs each team's hitters face and the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups each team's pitchers face, computed from the full MLB schedule for August 31 through September 6, this season's team run totals, and the park factor model behind the StreamMachine. Lefty exposure uses each opponent's actual share of starts by left-handers. Catcher throwing is Statcast caught stealing above average for 2026 through August 19, minimum 20 attempts. Park factors are on a 1.000 scale where 1.000 is neutral. Player ranks reference the FanRanked rest-of-season consensus.