Early Playoff Week Deep Dive: August 31 to September 6 Matchups

By JD, Founder. 2026-08-20

If your fantasy playoffs start August 31, this is your quarterfinal week. Every team's Aug 31 to Sep 6 slate graded by the matchups that matter: the pitching your bats will face, the offenses your arms will face, the parks, the platoon splits, and which catchers you can run on.

Updated August 30. Every table below is refreshed with team run totals, probable starters, catcher throwing, and roster moves through Saturday, August 29. The two-start pitchers, daily streamers, and waiver bats for this week are in the week one playoff cheat sheet.

TL;DR Plenty of leagues start their playoffs on August 31, a week before the structure our playoff deep dive covered. This is the matchup board for that one week, August 31 through September 6.

Start and Stream: Rockies bats (home all week against the two leakiest staffs on the board), Cardinals bats (Dodger Stadium, then Coors), Orioles and White Sox bats, Athletics arms (the softest week any staff gets), Rays, Rangers, and Yankees arms, and Dodgers right-handed power.

Waiver Targets: Willi Castro, Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, Colton Cowser, and Coby Mayo sit under 50 percent rostered and play the three best hitting schedules of the week. TJ Rumfield has climbed to 59 percent and is still a start every day.

Pitching Pickups: J.T. Ginn and Randy Dobnak each line up for two starts in soft spots; Ian Seymour does too, if he is still on your wire.

Bench and Fade: Cubs and Athletics bats, Nationals bats, the Reds on both sides, and every Cardinals and Rockies arm.

Small Edges: 14 teams play seven games while the rest play six, Kansas City faces zero left-handed starters, Seattle sees a lefty in seven of every ten games, and Cleveland and Detroit sneak in a doubleheader on September 4.

Why it matters: In a one-week head-to-head matchup, the schedule is most of the game. An extra game, a Coors series, or a platoon edge can decide a quarterfinal on its own, and you can set most of this up before the week starts.

Our standard playoff deep dive graded the three weeks from September 7 through 27, the most common playoff window. But shorter regular seasons and four-round brackets put plenty of leagues' first playoff matchup in the week of August 31, and that week has its own board. This article grades it on its own, one week, nothing bundled. If your playoffs run past September 6, the standard article covers every week after this one.

The method is identical. For hitters, the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the pitching staffs they will face this week. For pitchers, the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups they will face. Then games played, lefty-righty exposure, and which catchers your runners can steal on.

The Full Board

League average is 4.46 runs per game, so Bats Face above 4.46 is a tailwind for hitters and Arms Face below 4.46 is a tailwind for pitchers. Lefty SP is the number of left-handed starters the team should expect to see this week.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| COL | 6 | 6 | 5.32 | 5.17 | 1.6 | 1.153 | 1.106 | 1.041 |

| STL | 6 | 0 | 5.20 | 5.14 | 1.4 | 1.073 | 1.083 | 1.131 |

| BAL | 7 | 4 | 4.99 | 4.90 | 2.9 | 1.068 | 1.102 | 1.013 |

| CWS | 7 | 3 | 4.88 | 4.50 | 0.6 | 0.988 | 1.066 | 1.010 |

| PIT | 6 | 6 | 4.82 | 4.26 | 1.2 | 1.042 | 0.986 | 0.871 |

| ATL | 6 | 1 | 4.77 | 4.85 | 2.0 | 1.034 | 1.081 | 1.010 |

| LAD | 6 | 6 | 4.75 | 4.77 | 1.8 | 0.992 | 1.059 | 1.220 |

| MIA | 7 | 3 | 4.71 | 4.90 | 2.5 | 1.010 | 0.962 | 0.956 |

| AZ | 6 | 3 | 4.69 | 4.62 | 1.4 | 1.017 | 0.968 | 1.048 |

| DET | 7 | 0 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 2.9 | 1.024 | 1.027 | 0.942 |

| BOS | 7 | 3 | 4.56 | 4.27 | 0.9 | 1.000 | 1.016 | 0.957 |

| TOR | 6 | 0 | 4.55 | 4.24 | 2.6 | 1.019 | 0.972 | 0.933 |

| SF | 7 | 0 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1.6 | 1.017 | 0.967 | 0.954 |

| HOU | 7 | 7 | 4.50 | 4.72 | 2.3 | 1.006 | 1.070 | 1.064 |

| MIL | 7 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.65 | 2.9 | 0.975 | 1.055 | 1.086 |

| SEA | 7 | 4 | 4.49 | 4.10 | 4.9 | 0.931 | 0.946 | 0.928 |

| KC | 6 | 6 | 4.38 | 4.21 | 0.0 | 1.018 | 0.901 | 0.954 |

| NYM | 6 | 3 | 4.38 | 4.32 | 0.9 | 1.002 | 0.968 | 1.047 |

| PHI | 6 | 3 | 4.35 | 4.80 | 2.5 | 1.048 | 1.013 | 1.031 |

| TEX | 7 | 7 | 4.34 | 4.01 | 3.2 | 0.901 | 1.013 | 0.932 |

| SD | 6 | 3 | 4.33 | 4.27 | 1.9 | 0.995 | 1.074 | 1.101 |

| NYY | 6 | 0 | 4.29 | 4.04 | 1.8 | 0.972 | 1.014 | 1.034 |

| LAA | 6 | 3 | 4.27 | 4.73 | 0.8 | 1.016 | 1.017 | 0.929 |

| TB | 7 | 3 | 4.19 | 3.83 | 2.8 | 0.942 | 1.001 | 0.980 |

| CLE | 7 | 7 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 1.5 | 1.020 | 1.043 | 0.912 |

| MIN | 6 | 3 | 4.16 | 4.59 | 1.8 | 0.997 | 1.033 | 0.960 |

| CIN | 6 | 6 | 4.06 | 4.79 | 2.0 | 1.036 | 1.168 | 1.120 |

| ATH | 7 | 0 | 3.92 | 3.52 | 1.2 | 0.891 | 0.992 | 0.937 |

| WSH | 6 | 3 | 3.90 | 4.73 | 2.2 | 1.004 | 1.040 | 1.122 |

| CHC | 7 | 4 | 3.77 | 4.50 | 1.8 | 0.959 | 0.985 | 1.007 |

The rest of this article is that table, broken into the decisions it implies.

Hitter Matchups

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Rockies | 6 | 5.32 | +0.85 | 1.153 | 6 |

| Cardinals | 6 | 5.20 | +0.74 | 1.073 | 0 |

| Orioles | 7 | 4.99 | +0.53 | 1.068 | 4 |

| White Sox | 7 | 4.88 | +0.41 | 0.988 | 3 |

| Pirates | 6 | 4.82 | +0.36 | 1.042 | 6 |

| Braves | 6 | 4.77 | +0.31 | 1.034 | 1 |

| Dodgers | 6 | 4.75 | +0.29 | 0.992 | 6 |

| Marlins | 7 | 4.71 | +0.24 | 1.010 | 3 |

This week runs through Coors Field, and the teams passing through it own the board. The Rockies are home all week hosting the Orioles and Cardinals, and now have the best hitting week in baseball: both visiting staffs have leaked runs for two weeks, and Colorado gets them at altitude. The Cardinals are a hair behind: three at Dodger Stadium against Lauer, Yamamoto, and Skubal, then three at Coors from Friday through Sunday against a Rockies rotation that lost Kyle Freeland to the IL and now runs Feltner, Mason Adams, and Tanner Gordon. The Orioles open the week with three at Coors against Gordon, Hughes, and Sugano before coming home for four. The White Sox are the new name in the top four: seven games against Houston and Minnesota, and almost no left-handed starters. If a bat on one of these four teams is sitting on your bench or your waiver wire, this is its week.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Cubs | 7 | 3.77 | -0.70 | 0.959 | 4 |

| Nationals | 6 | 3.90 | -0.57 | 1.004 | 3 |

| Athletics | 7 | 3.92 | -0.55 | 0.891 | 0 |

| Reds | 6 | 4.06 | -0.40 | 1.036 | 6 |

| Twins | 6 | 4.16 | -0.31 | 0.997 | 3 |

| Guardians | 7 | 4.17 | -0.29 | 1.020 | 7 |

| Rays | 7 | 4.19 | -0.28 | 0.942 | 3 |

| Angels | 6 | 4.27 | -0.20 | 1.016 | 3 |

The Cubs open with four straight against Milwaukee's staff, the best run prevention in the National League, and the Athletics play all seven games on the road in Arlington and Seattle, the two most run-suppressing parks in baseball. Between the two of them there is not a single favorable hitting day all week. The Nationals slid to second-worst since this first ran: one against Miami, two against Atlanta, then three at Dodger Stadium.

Pitcher Matchups

Same idea, reversed. Lower is better here.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Athletics | 7 | 3.52 | -0.94 | 0.891 |

| Rays | 7 | 3.83 | -0.64 | 0.942 |

| Rangers | 7 | 4.01 | -0.46 | 0.901 |

| Yankees | 6 | 4.04 | -0.42 | 0.972 |

| Mariners | 7 | 4.10 | -0.36 | 0.931 |

| Royals | 6 | 4.21 | -0.25 | 1.018 |

| Blue Jays | 6 | 4.24 | -0.23 | 1.019 |

| Pirates | 6 | 4.26 | -0.21 | 1.042 |

The Athletics' number is the single best week any staff gets in either playoff window: nearly a full run per game below league average, built from the Texas and Seattle lineups in the two best pitcher parks in the league. The same seven road games that bury their bats make every Athletics arm a stream this week, and per the probables grid J.T. Ginn gets two of them. The Rangers moved up to third: seven home games at a 0.901 run factor, hosting the Athletics and Rays. Yankees arms quietly get a full week in Anaheim and Petco.

And the arms with the hardest week.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Rockies | 6 | 5.17 | +0.71 | 1.153 |

| Cardinals | 6 | 5.14 | +0.68 | 1.073 |

| Marlins | 7 | 4.90 | +0.44 | 1.010 |

| Orioles | 7 | 4.90 | +0.43 | 1.068 |

| Braves | 6 | 4.85 | +0.38 | 1.034 |

| Phillies | 6 | 4.80 | +0.34 | 1.048 |

| Reds | 6 | 4.79 | +0.33 | 1.036 |

| Dodgers | 6 | 4.77 | +0.31 | 0.992 |

Coors cuts both ways. The same trip that makes Cardinals bats a play of the week makes Cardinals arms the fade of the week: the Dodgers lineup, then three days at altitude. Bench them all, including good ones. Rockies arms have it worse: six home games against the Orioles and Cardinals. Marlins arms are the surprise on this list, seven games against Washington, Kansas City, and the Cubs that grade tougher than they look because of the parks.

Team Specific Variation

These are the widest splits on the board by team.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Rockies | 5.32 | +0.85 | 5.17 | +0.71 |

| Cardinals | 5.20 | +0.74 | 5.14 | +0.68 |

| Orioles | 4.99 | +0.53 | 4.90 | +0.43 |

| Braves | 4.77 | +0.31 | 4.85 | +0.38 |

| Athletics | 3.92 | -0.55 | 3.52 | -0.94 |

| Rays | 4.19 | -0.28 | 3.83 | -0.64 |

| Cubs | 3.77 | -0.70 | 4.50 | +0.04 |

| Yankees | 4.29 | -0.17 | 4.04 | -0.42 |

St. Louis and Colorado are the cleanest one-team decisions of the week: start every bat, sit every arm. The Athletics are the mirror image. Note the Mariners are missing from the extremes on purpose: their bats grade close to neutral this week, so the enormous Seattle hitting weeks in our standard article start September 7, not now.

Games Played

Fourteen teams play seven games this week; the other sixteen play six. In a one-week matchup that seventh game is worth roughly four extra plate appearances per bat, and often a whole extra start.

| Team | G | Home G |

| --- | --- | --- |

| Orioles | 7 | 4 |

| White Sox | 7 | 3 |

| Marlins | 7 | 3 |

| Tigers | 7 | 0 |

| Giants | 7 | 0 |

| Mariners | 7 | 4 |

| Red Sox | 7 | 3 |

| Astros | 7 | 7 |

| Brewers | 7 | 0 |

| Rangers | 7 | 7 |

| Guardians | 7 | 7 |

| Rays | 7 | 3 |

| Athletics | 7 | 0 |

| Cubs | 7 | 4 |

Cleveland and Detroit get their seventh game from a doubleheader against each other on September 4, and Houston, Texas, and Cleveland spend the entire week at home. Of the six-game teams, the Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Royals, and Reds never leave home, while the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Yankees never see their own park. Boston's seven games got more interesting on Sunday: Roman Anthony and Trevor Story were both activated from the 60-day IL.

Ballpark Factors

We weighted every team's week by the run factor of the park each game is played in, using the same park model that powers the StreamMachine, then did it again for home runs by batter handedness.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Rockies | 6 | 1.153 | 6 | | Athletics | 7 | 0.891 | 0 |

| Cardinals | 6 | 1.073 | 0 | | Rangers | 7 | 0.901 | 7 |

| Orioles | 7 | 1.068 | 4 | | Mariners | 7 | 0.931 | 4 |

| Phillies | 6 | 1.048 | 3 | | Rays | 7 | 0.942 | 3 |

| Pirates | 6 | 1.042 | 6 | | Cubs | 7 | 0.959 | 4 |

| Reds | 6 | 1.036 | 6 | | Yankees | 6 | 0.972 | 0 |

The Coors ledger for the week, because visitors get the altitude too.

| --- | --- | --- | --- |

The handedness splits add one more layer.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Dodgers | 1.220 | | Reds | 1.168 |

| Cardinals | 1.131 | | Rockies | 1.106 |

| Nationals | 1.122 | | Orioles | 1.102 |

| Reds | 1.120 | | Cardinals | 1.083 |

| Padres | 1.101 | | Braves | 1.081 |

| Pirates | 0.871 | | Royals | 0.901 |

| Guardians | 0.912 | | Mariners | 0.946 |

| Mariners | 0.928 | | Marlins | 0.962 |

| Angels | 0.929 | | Giants | 0.967 |

| Rangers | 0.932 | | Diamondbacks | 0.968 |

The Dodgers' 1.220 for right-handed power is the highest single-week number we have measured: six home games for Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández in a park set that loves their swings, hosting the Cardinals and Nationals staffs. Andy Pages would have been the third name here; he went on the IL with a fractured left hand on August 22, and Alek Thomas has center field. On the other side, Pittsburgh's 0.871 for righty power takes real thump off an otherwise strong Pirates hitting week.

Lefty-Righty: Who is Most Exposed to Left-Handed Starters

We measured each opponent's share of starts made by left-handers this season, then summed it across the week.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Mariners | 7 | 4.9 | 0.70 | | Royals | 6 | 0.0 | 0.00 |

| Rangers | 7 | 3.2 | 0.46 | | White Sox | 7 | 0.6 | 0.08 |

| Orioles | 7 | 2.9 | 0.42 | | Angels | 6 | 0.8 | 0.13 |

| Tigers | 7 | 2.9 | 0.41 | | Red Sox | 7 | 0.9 | 0.12 |

| Brewers | 7 | 2.9 | 0.41 | | Mets | 6 | 0.9 | 0.15 |

| Rays | 7 | 2.8 | 0.40 | | Pirates | 6 | 1.2 | 0.20 |

| Blue Jays | 6 | 2.6 | 0.43 | | Athletics | 7 | 1.2 | 0.17 |

| Phillies | 6 | 2.5 | 0.41 | | Cardinals | 6 | 1.4 | 0.24 |

Seattle sees a left-handed starter in roughly seven of every ten games this week, three days against Boston's lefty-heavy rotation and then four against an Athletics rotation that is the most left-handed in baseball. Right-handed Mariners bats get a real platoon boost; left-handed Mariners bats will sit more than their owners expect. At the other end, Kansas City faces zero expected lefty starts and the White Sox barely more, so left-handed Royals and White Sox bats are platoon-proof all week.

Steals: Exploiting Catchers

Stolen bases are the streakiest category in a weekly matchup, and in a one-week playoff round they can decide it outright. Catcher throwing below is Statcast caught stealing above average through August 29.

Start with the worst of them. Ivan Herrera has caught one of the 31 runners who have tested him this season. When Herrera is behind the plate, every runner on the other side has a green light. Victor Caratini has now passed him at the bottom of the league.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Victor Caratini | MIN | 47 | 6 | 13% | -5.5 |

| Ivan Herrera | STL | 31 | 1 | 3% | -5.1 |

| Drake Baldwin | ATL | 34 | 3 | 9% | -4.2 |

| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 31 | 4 | 13% | -4.0 |

| Carson Kelly | CHC | 49 | 8 | 16% | -3.9 |

| Cal Raleigh | SEA | 45 | 6 | 13% | -3.7 |

| Austin Hedges | CLE | 34 | 2 | 6% | -3.4 |

Now lay this week's schedule over it.

| Matchup | Who it pays |

| --- | --- |

| Brewers at Cubs, four games | Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang open the week with four straight against Carson Kelly. |

| Cardinals at Dodgers, then at Rockies | Herrera on the road for six: Dodgers runners get him for three, Rockies runners for three more. |

| Braves at Phillies, Sep 4 to 6 | Trea Turner runs on Drake Baldwin all weekend. |

| Tigers, then White Sox, vs Twins | Anyone with legs on either roster gets Caratini and Jeffers. |

| Athletics at Mariners, four games | Lawrence Butler gets four days of Cal Raleigh, who has slipped to sixth-worst in the league. Butler stole four bags in August; the parks kill his bat this week, not his legs. |

The flip side matters just as much. These are the arms that shut the category off.

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Brandon Valenzuela | TOR | 56 | 17 | 30% | +7.2 |

| Joe Mack | MIA | 42 | 12 | 29% | +5.5 |

| Freddy Fermin | SD | 49 | 16 | 33% | +5.5 |

| Adley Rutschman | BOS | 36 | 14 | 39% | +5.1 |

| William Contreras | MIL | 47 | 14 | 30% | +4.7 |

| Patrick Bailey | CLE | 51 | 16 | 31% | +4.1 |

The big loser is Elly De La Cruz. His week runs through Freddy Fermin's Padres and William Contreras's Brewers back to back, two of the three best throwing catchers in the league. In the standard window his steals survive his matchups; this week they don't. Julio Rodriguez opens with three against Rutschman, Guardians runners spend three days against Toronto's Brandon Valenzuela, and Yankee runners close the week against Fermin in San Diego.

The Plays

One week means lineup and waiver moves, not blockbusters. In order of conviction:

| Play | Why | Data |

| --- | --- | --- |

| Start every Rockies bat | Home all week at a 1.153 run factor against the two leakiest staffs on the board. Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield, Hunter Goodman (back from the IL with 36 homers), Ezequiel Tovar, and Willi Castro all play up. | Bats 5.32, +0.85 |

| Start every Cardinal bat | Dodger Stadium, then three at Coors. Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Herrera himself all play up. Righty power gets the 1.131 park set. | Bats 5.20, +0.74 |

| Bench every Cardinal and Rockies arm | The same series, from the mound. No Cardinal or Rockies pitcher is safe this week. | STL 5.14, COL 5.17 |

| Stream Athletics arms | The softest week any staff gets in either window: Texas and Seattle lineups in the league's two best pitcher parks. Ginn twice, Jacob Lopez once. | Arms 3.52, -0.94 |

| Ride Orioles bats | Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso (.340 with nine homers in August), and Samuel Basallo get three at Coors plus a seventh game, and Tyler O'Neill's IL stint opens at-bats for Cowser and Mayo. | BAL 4.99, 7 G |

| Trust Dodgers righty power | Six home games at the week's best right-handed power factor, against the two worst pitching staffs on the board. Betts and Hernández; Pages is out. | HR RHB 1.220 |

| Stream Rays, Rangers, and Yankees arms | Tampa Bay draws the Mets and a trip to Arlington; Texas hosts the Athletics and Rays; the Yankees get a full week in Anaheim and Petco. | TB 3.83, TEX 4.01, NYY 4.04 |

| Fade the Reds both ways | Bottom-five hitting matchups, bottom-five pitching matchups, and Elly's running lanes closed by Fermin and Contreras. The one silver lining is six home games in a park inflating homers from both sides. | Bats 4.06, arms 4.79 |

| Use the platoon edges | Right-handed Mariners feast on the lefty parade; left-handed Royals and White Sox bats almost never see a lefty starter all week. | SEA 0.70 LHP/g, KC 0.00, CWS 0.08 |

Too Long; Didn't Read

Start and stream: Rockies, Cardinals, Orioles, and White Sox bats, Athletics arms, Rays, Rangers, and Yankees arms, and Dodgers right-handed power.

Bench and fade: Cubs and Athletics bats, Nationals bats, the Reds on both sides, and every Cardinals and Rockies arm.

Small edges: 14 teams play seven games, Kansas City faces zero lefty starters, Seattle sees a lefty in seven of every ten games, and Cleveland and Detroit play a doubleheader September 4.

Why it matters: In a one-week matchup the schedule is most of the game. Set your lineup for the week your league actually plays, and if your playoffs continue past September 6, the standard playoff deep dive grades every week after this one.

Matchup grades are the park-adjusted runs allowed per game of the staffs each team's hitters face and the park-adjusted runs scored per game of the lineups each team's pitchers face, computed from the full MLB schedule for August 31 through September 6, this season's team run totals through August 29, and the park factor model behind the StreamMachine. Lefty exposure uses each opponent's actual share of starts by left-handers. Catcher throwing is Statcast caught stealing above average for 2026 through August 29, minimum 20 attempts. Park factors are on a 1.000 scale where 1.000 is neutral. Rostered percentages average the major fantasy platforms as of August 30. Player ranks reference the FanRanked rest-of-season consensus.

Players in this article

About the author

JD, Founder at FanRanked. Former professional baseball player of 5 years, hardcore fantasy baseball fan for much, much longer.