With Opening Day approaching, these 10 players carry underlying Statcast data, mechanical adjustments, or situational changes that suggest their current ADPs are leaving value on the table.
With Opening Day fast approaching, draft season is reaching its crescendo. Expert consensus rankings are a useful starting point, but they are a reflection of where the median evaluator lands on a player — not a ceiling. The players below all carry underlying data, mechanical adjustments, or situational changes that suggest their current ADPs are leaving value on the table. Here are 10 players that have the chance to outperform their expert consensus rankings this season, supported by underlying data and spring training observations.
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2026 ADP: 91st overall | 2025 line: .200/.304/.398, 20 HR, 38 SB
Cruz is being drafted outside the top 80 after a season in which he hit .200 — and yet, Baseball Savant painted a drastically different picture of his 2025. His average exit velocity (96.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (58.3%) both ranked in the 100th percentile. He set the MLB record for the hardest-hit ball of the season at 122.9 mph. His barrel rate climbed to a career-best 19.8%. His xwOBA sat at .341 against an actual wOBA of just .304, a gap driven largely by a .262 BABIP — well below his career norms.
The batting average was ugly, but the underlying contact quality was the best of his career. If his BABIP simply normalizes to .280-.290, his average could jump 30-40 points. He also stole 38 bases despite missing time with finger, back, and concussion injuries. This spring, Cruz has looked sharp — hitting .417 with a 13.8% walk rate in Grapefruit League play with 5 stolen bases and 2 HRs. He is getting reps as the leadoff hitter, which would maximize his stolen base opportunities.
The risk is real — a 31.9% strikeout rate and 34.7% whiff rate are not going away. But a 20/40 floor with .230-.240 batting average upside at pick 84-100 is a bet worth making. The Statcast profile says this is one of the most explosive athletes in the sport being drafted at a discount because of a depressed BABIP. Will he hit over .250? Most likely not, but he can still return significant excess value hitting .240 and going 30/30.
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2026 ADP: 286th overall | Steamer projection: .245/13 HR/3 SB
DeLauter may be the single best value in fantasy drafts right now. The 23-year-old former first-round pick has been handed Cleveland's everyday right field job and is being drafted after pick 280 — essentially free in most formats.
The batted-ball data from his 2025 Triple-A season was eye-opening: a 51% hard-hit rate (18th among 503 qualified Triple-A hitters), a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 107 mph, and a whiff rate that dropped to 13.8% from June onward after recovering from sports hernia surgery. This spring, he has slashed .393/.433/.643 with 11 hard-hit balls at 100-plus mph out of 24 balls in play. His hardest-hit ball of the spring — 115.3 mph — was the hardest by any Guardian in camp.
The concern is durability. DeLauter has never played more than 57 games in a professional season, dealing with a broken foot (twice), a sports hernia, and a broken hamate bone across his minor league career. But the Guardians are committed to him, and the upside projection — .270 AVG, 20 HR, 10 SB if healthy — dwarfs his current draft cost. At ADP 287, the risk-reward equation is as tilted as it gets.
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2026 ADP: 196th overall (SP41) | 2025 line: 5-10, 6.01 ERA, 94.1 IP
Nola's 2025 was the worst season of his career — but the context matters enormously. A right ankle sprain and a stress fracture in his rib cage limited him to 17 starts. Despite the 6.01 ERA, his underlying metrics told a different story: a 3.71 xFIP, a 4.12 xERA, and an xwOBA of .315 that all pointed to a pitcher whose stuff remained largely intact. His curveball generated a 39.7% whiff rate, and his chase rate ranked in the 93rd percentile.
The most compelling data point is the velocity recovery. Nola represented Italy in the 2026 World Baseball Classic and was named to the All-Tournament Team after allowing one run in nine innings with eight strikeouts. His fastball topped 94.5 mph in the semifinal — a velocity he reached only three times across all of 2025.
Projection systems see him as a mid-SP3 (3.86 ERA, 192 K over 188 IP). At ADP 185 as the 41st pitcher off the board, his track record and velocity gains make him one of the more obvious bounceback candidates in the pitching market.
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2026 ADP: 145th overall | 2025 line: 12 W, 3.06 ERA, 173 K, 167.2 IP
Williams presents a fascinating analytical debate. His 3.06 ERA was one of the best in the American League, but his xERA (4.30), FIP (4.39), and SIERA (4.35) all suggest significant overperformance. The gap between the surface and the expected numbers was among the largest in baseball.
However, the second-half story is the key. After a mid-season mechanical adjustment — raising his hands from belt to chest height, creating a longer arm path — Williams posted a 2.18 ERA over his final 12 starts with a 1.06 WHIP and 18% K-BB%. His walk rate, which was 13.5% in the first half, dropped to 9.2% after the break. His four-seam fastball gained nearly two inches of induced vertical break and his Stuff+ ranked 19th in baseball at 103.
This spring, the walk-rate improvement appears to be carrying over — his spring FIP sits at 3.38 with a 9.68 K/9 and just 1.02 BB/9. He has been named Cleveland's Opening Day starter. The question is whether the second-half version of Williams is real. If it is, a pitcher with a 121 Stuff+ fastball and a 46% whiff-rate sweeper is being drafted as a back-end SP3. The ADP at 145-154 reflects the skeptics' view. The spring data and mechanical changes suggest the optimists may be right.
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2026 ADP: 214th overall (OF50-57) | 2025 line: .252/.310/.478, 26 HR
Carpenter's barrel rate (87th percentile) and hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) are the calling cards. Those are elite-tier power indicators that produced 26 home runs despite missing over 40 games to various injuries. His xSLG of .493 confirms there is real thump in the bat.
The most intriguing development this spring has been a process change rather than a results change. Carpenter's spring slash line is an unsightly .184/.262/.263, but his chase rate has dropped over 10 percentage points (from 34.1% to 23.7%) and his walk rate has nearly doubled (from 3.9% to 7.1%). That 2nd-percentile walk rate was his biggest liability in 2025. If that improved approach carries into the regular season, it could meaningfully raise his floor — and a version of Carpenter who walks 7-8% of the time with 87th-percentile barrel rate is a much more complete hitter.
At ADP 215-233, he is being drafted as the 50th-plus outfielder. ZiPS projects 25 home runs and an .806 OPS. If he stays healthy for 140-plus games and the plate discipline gains are real, Carpenter could comfortably outperform his draft slot by several rounds.
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2026 ADP: 218th overall | 2025 line: .246/.305/.368, 15 HR, 15 SB
Lopez is one of the most compelling expected-stats breakout candidates in baseball. His 2025 xBA of .269 was 23 points higher than his actual .246 batting average. His xSLG of .434 was a massive 66 points above his actual .368 slugging percentage. His xwOBA of .330 versus an actual wOBA of .295 indicates he was one of the most unlucky hitters in baseball relative to his contact quality.
The underlying skill improvements were real and broad-based. Year over year, his barrel rate jumped from 5.1% to 7.1%, his strikeout rate dropped from 17.3% to 13.8%, his walk rate rose from 5.8% to 7.4%, and his chase rate improved by 2.5 percentage points. He also graded out as an elite defender (96th-percentile OAA, 10 outs above average) with 86th-percentile sprint speed.
His home/road split is striking: a 73 wRC+ at loanDepot Park versus a 98 wRC+ on the road. Composite projections peg him around .268/12 HR/16 SB — modest, but at ADP 244 with dual SS/2B eligibility, the combination of expected-stats regression, improved plate discipline, and positional flexibility makes him a strong late-round target.
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2026 ADP: 54th overall | 2025 line: .259/.303/.472, 16 HR, 67 RBI (injury-shortened)
Merrill's 2025 was derailed by a hamstring injury, a concussion, and an ankle sprain — but when healthy, the underlying data was elite. His xwOBA ranked at or above the 88th percentile. His xBA, xSLG, and launch-angle sweet-spot rate all graded out at or above the 75th percentile. His actual wOBA of .331 lagged behind an xwOBA of .347, suggesting bad luck or poor sequencing depressed his stats.
The September sample was particularly loud: .275/.320/.626 with seven home runs and a 160 wRC+ over 97 plate appearances. That is what a healthy Merrill looks like. He also carries 81st-percentile sprint speed and 98th-percentile arm strength — rare physical tools for a 23-year-old.
This spring he has slugged .600 with four doubles and two home runs. The Padres are expected to move him into the two-hole, which would boost his run-scoring and stolen-base opportunities versus last year's cleanup slot. The 34.4% chase rate remains a concern, but at ADP 60, he is priced as a mid-tier OF2 with legitimate OF1 upside if the health holds. His rookie 2024 season (.292, 24 HR, 16 SB, 90 RBI) remains the realistic ceiling.
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2026 ADP: 72nd overall | 2025 line: .277/.325/.536, 31 HR, 72 RBI, 7 SB
Langeliers posted one of the best offensive seasons by a catcher in 2025, but his expected-stats profile introduces a legitimate question. His actual wOBA of .364 outpaced an xwOBA of .328 by 36 points. His actual slugging (.536) exceeded his xSLG (.463) by 73 points. His barrel rate actually declined from 2024 while his slugging jumped 86 points — a textbook indicator of BABIP-driven overperformance.
So why is he on this list? Because the improvements that were real could sustain a slightly lower but still elite line. His strikeout rate dropped to a career-best 19.7%. His sprint speed ranks in the 81st percentile — exceptional for the position. His pop time (1.89 seconds) is elite, and his framing has improved to roughly league average after being a liability early in his career.
The park factor matters, too. Oakland is now playing home games at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, which is extremely hitter-friendly and should support his power numbers. This spring, Langeliers has slashed .351/.429/.919 with six home runs — including a three-homer game in which he launched a 450-foot blast to center field.
Even with some BABIP regression baked in, a catcher who can hit 28-plus home runs with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 81st-percentile speed is rare. At ADP 52, the market is pricing in the 2025 surface stats. The expected-stats crowd may push him down their boards, but the underlying skill gains and park factor suggest he can still outperform his consensus slot.
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2026 ADP: 71st overall | 2025 line: .258/.806 OPS, 36 HR, 111 RBI
Greene's 2025 was a tale of two profiles. The power output was enormous — 36 home runs, 111 RBI, an 88th-percentile barrel rate. He was the first Tiger to reach 35 HR and 110 RBI since Miguel Cabrera in 2013. But his plate discipline metrics were among the worst in the league: a 30.7% strikeout rate (1st percentile), a 30.9% whiff rate, and a 7.0% walk rate (4th percentile). His 201 strikeouts led the American League.
The spring training narrative is encouraging. Greene has been working with pitching machines simulating high-velocity breaking balls rather than standard batting practice — a targeted approach to his swing-and-miss problem. In one notable spring at-bat against Toronto, he fouled off seven consecutive pitches before drawing a walk. His spring strikeout rate has ticked down to roughly 25%, an improvement over the regular-season mark.
The projections see him around .290/30-plus HR/90-plus RBI. If the discipline adjustments are even partially real — dropping the K rate from 30% to 26-27% — the batting average stabilizes and he becomes a legitimate top-40 overall player. At ADP 61-79, there is room for a significant return if the process changes carry into the regular season.
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2026 ADP: 279th overall | Minor league line (2025): .334/.411/.863 OPS, 46 SB
Crawford is the wild card on this list — a 22-year-old rookie who has never taken a regular-season MLB at-bat. But the Phillies have officially named him their everyday starting center fielder, and the speed profile is generational. Crawford stole 46 bases in 2025 at Triple-A with an 82% career success rate. His 75-grade speed is the kind of tool that inflates BABIP, creates extra-base opportunities, and generates steals at a 25-30 clip even in a partial rookie season.
His 2025 Triple-A slash line was eye-catching: .334/.411 with an 85.3% contact rate and 11.5% walk rate. The scouting concern is a 59.4% groundball rate that could limit his power ceiling and depress his batting average against elite MLB defenses. But ZiPS projects .286 with 29 steals, and even Steamer's conservative estimate sees 17 steals in limited playing time.
This spring, Crawford lined a 106-mph triple off Tarik Skubal — batting left-handed against a lefty ace — showcasing bat speed that may exceed current projections. At ADP 270-315, he is essentially a free pick in the final rounds of drafts. A .270-plus average with 25-plus stolen bases from a player drafted that late would be one of the best values in fantasy baseball.
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