"Weekly breakdown of the biggest NFBC ADP risers and fallers for the week of 2026-02-23. High-stakes draft trends and actionable takeaways."
The NFBC ADP market sent some clear signals this week, with dramatic swings that reflect both injury concerns and emerging opportunities heading into the 2026 season. When high-stakes fantasy players ($150-$2500+ buy-ins) start moving their draft capital around, it's time to pay attention — and this week's data shows some seismic shifts that could reshape your draft strategy.
The most jarring move was Pablo Lopez's catastrophic 397-spot plummet from the 12th round to deep sleeper territory, signaling serious concerns about his recovery from last season's injury troubles. Meanwhile, relievers dominated the riser list, suggesting the closer market may be more fluid than initially expected.
The relief pitcher revolution was in full swing this week, with closers and setup men capturing six of the top 20 rising spots. Scott Barlow led all risers with a 100-spot jump (ADP #697 → #597), while Kevin Ginkel made the most significant move among fantasy-relevant players, rising 87 spots from #462 to #375. Yimi Garcia also surged 86 spots, reflecting growing confidence in these arms securing late-inning roles.
This reliever surge suggests NFBC drafters are recognizing value in the closer market's volatility. With bullpen roles often fluid throughout the season, securing multiple relief options in the middle rounds appears to be gaining traction among high-stakes players.
Coby Mayo provided the week's biggest prospect pop, jumping 82 spots from #459 to #377. The Baltimore third baseman's rise into borderline top-300 territory indicates growing confidence he'll contribute meaningfully in 2026, possibly earning an early-season promotion.
Garrett Whitlock emerged as a starter to watch, climbing 79 spots from #486 to #407. His move into the top 400 suggests renewed optimism about his role and health after Boston's rotation shuffle.
International addition Hyeseong Kim continued his steady climb, rising 71 spots from #501 to #430. The Dodgers' new second baseman is generating buzz as a potential multi-category contributor who could provide immediate value in LA's loaded lineup.
Veterans also found new life this week. Andrew McCutchen jumped 88 spots, while Joc Pederson rose 76 spots, suggesting these proven commodities are being viewed as safer floor plays compared to volatile younger options.
Pablo Lopez's historic 397-spot collapse from #141 to #538 represents the week's most significant story. The Twins starter, who was being drafted as a solid SP3/SP4 option, has clearly hit a major roadblock. With reports indicating he's looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2025 season, his ADP drop reflects serious concerns about his availability and effectiveness to start 2026.
Felix Bautista suffered the second-largest decline, plummeting 183 spots from #559 to #742. Projections showing him missing most of the 2026 season explain this dramatic fall — fantasy players are essentially writing off the Orioles closer entirely for draft purposes.
Jordan Westburg experienced the most painful drop among previously viable fantasy options, falling 113 spots from #134 to #247. This moves him from the 11th round to the 20th round, suggesting concerns about his role or health have emerged. For a player who was being drafted as a potential breakout candidate, this represents a significant loss of confidence.
Prospect darlings took several hits this week. Nelson Rada dropped 169 spots, while Gavin Stone fell 149 spots. Both moves suggest either concerning reports from camp or simply a market correction after early-season hype.
Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach both saw their ADPs drop significantly (112 and 77 spots respectively), indicating the Braves' young pitching depth may be facing more competition or development concerns than initially anticipated.
The catcher position also saw turbulence, with David Fry falling 114 spots, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty in Cleveland's catching situation.
These ADP movements reveal several actionable strategies for upcoming drafts:
Target the reliever market aggressively. The significant rises among closers suggest this market is undervalued early in draft season. Players like Ginkel and Garcia moving up indicate smart money is recognizing the scarcity of reliable saves sources.
Fade Pablo Lopez completely until more clarity emerges about his health. A nearly 400-spot drop in NFBC indicates serious red flags that casual leagues may not have fully priced in yet.
Consider Jordan Westburg a value pick if the drop was overreaction rather than based on concrete concerns. A fall from round 11 to round 20 could present significant upside if he maintains his projected role.
Monitor the prospect market carefully. The mixed signals on young players like Mayo (rising) versus Rada and Stone (falling) suggest information is flowing quickly. Those with access to spring training reports could find significant edges.
Veterans offer stability. The rises of McCutchen and Pederson indicate experienced players may provide safer floors than volatile prospects in uncertain times.
The reliever surge particularly stands out as a market inefficiency worth exploiting. When high-stakes players start moving draft capital toward middle-tier closers, it often signals value before the broader market catches up.
These NFBC movements provide crucial intelligence for your draft preparation. Track these trends and more comprehensive ADP data on FanRanked to stay ahead of the market, and use our trade calculator to evaluate how these shifting values impact your dynasty roster decisions.